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ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Edged up in July

The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Taiwan. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of July 2015.
HIGHLIGHTS

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwan Consumer Confidence rose to 97.1 (up 1pt) in July, compared with 96.1 in June.

  • In terms of personal finances, 7.6% (down 0.2ppt) of respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, compared to 27.5% (down 3.2ppts) that said their families are ‘worse off’, a record low for this indicator.

  • 12.8% (down 1.3ppts) of respondents expect their families will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to 16.5% (down 1.5ppts) that expect their families will be ‘worse off’ financially, the lowest figure recorded.

  • In addition, 32.5% (up 2.6ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan will have ‘good times’ economically over the next 12 months, while just 20.2% (up 0.2ppt) of respondents expect ‘bad times’ economically.

  • Over a quarter of respondents, 26.7% (down 0.3ppt) expect Taiwan will have ‘good times’ during the next five years and just 17.2% (up 1.2ppts) of respondents expect Taiwan will have ‘bad times’.

  • 10.6% (down 0.6ppt) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items in Taiwan while a record low of 23.1% (down 1.7ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.

  • The inflation expectations rose to 1.7% in June (up 0.5ppts).
ANZ’s Senior Economist Raymond Yeung said:

“July’s figure is not impressive. The increase in index was mainly because of fewer pessimists rather than more optimists. Taiwan’s retail sales barely grew in the past few months. Households will spend cautiously due to financial market volatility.

"More importantly, exports continue to decline in recent months and we have adjusted the GDP forecast for 2015 downward. However, we believe that the central bank will keep interest rate on hold this year. As the market interest rate remains low with overnight interbank offered rate staying at below 0.4%, the room for further rate cut is also small. Given the direction of the U.S. Fed, we believe that the policy rate revision will likely be a hike, probably in early next year.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Rating - July 2015 - 97.1

ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Rating - July 2015 - 97.1

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Taiwanese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - July 2015.


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