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Potential Labour/Greens alliance support jumps ahead of National as RBNZ cuts interest rates to boost flagging NZ economy

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 876 electors in September 2015. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 2.5%) didn’t name a party.
During September support for National fell 6% to 44.5% now just behind a potential Labour/Greens alliance 46% (up 8%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the Election would be too close to call with fourth party New Zealand First in a position to pick New Zealand’s next Government.

Support for the National partners was little changed with the Maori Party 1.5% (unchanged), Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 31% (up 4%), Greens 15% (up 4%) although support for NZ First decreased to 5.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest level of support for New Zealand First since last year’s New Zealand Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 1%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 128.5pts (up 8.5pts) in September. An increasing majority of NZ electors 58% (up 4%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is far higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is at only 90pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“A potential Labour/ Greens alliance 46% (up 8% in September) now leads Prime Minister John Key’s National (44.5%, down 6%) as New Zealand’s economy slows and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut New Zealand interest rates to 2.75% (down 0.25%) last week. Falling interest rates have contributed to a plummeting New Zealand Dollar – which dipped below 63 US cents for the first time since July 2009 early in September and remains near six year lows today at 63.9 US cents.

“Adding to the concerns for Prime Minister Key was below forecast growth figures for the June Quarter 2015 released this week showing the New Zealand economy grew at only 0.4%, an annual rate of growth of only 2.4% - the slowest for two years. The plunge in the price of dairy products early in 2015 has continued to have an impact on New Zealand’s economy. Dairy product exports – particularly to China – are New Zealand’s largest export earner.

“Although the New Zealand economy is slowing down, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating shows Consumer Confidence steadied in August – now at 110.8 (up 1pt) after four straight months of falls and Roy Morgan Government Confidence improved strongly to 128.5 (up 8.5pts) with 58% (up 4%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 876 electors in September 2015. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 2.5%) didn’t name a party.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

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+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0