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ANZ-Roy Morgan Thai Consumer Confidence: Consumer Sentiment Surges Higher
October 28 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of October 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence index jumped 8.4pts to 111.8 in October. The index is now hovering above its long-term average of 111.0, but on a y/y basis, it is still 10.1 pts lower (Oct’14: 121.9). Overall, most of the index’s gains was derived from respondents’ increased optimism about their current and future personal financial situations.
ANZ Economist, ASEAN & Pacific, Weiwen Ng says:
- In terms of personal finances, 31% (up 7ppts from September) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than the same time last year. The value is the highest recorded for the indicator since March 2015. Meanwhile, 38% (down 7ppts) said their families are ‘worse off’ financially than a year ago. The value is the lowest since March 2015.
- 50% (up 4ppts from September) of the respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time. This is the highest level recorded for the indicator since April 2015. On the other hand, 17% (down 7ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
- When thinking of the Thai economy in the next 12 months, 47% (up 2ppts from September) expect the country to have ‘good times’ financially while 30% (down 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’.
- Over the longer term, respondents are also very positive about the country’s prospects, with a vast majority of 71% (up 1ppt from September) expecting Thailand to have ‘good times’ over the next five years. The indicator is now at its highest since January 2015. In contrast, 8% (down 1%) expect ‘bad times’ in Thailand, the lowest for the indicator since January 2015.
- However, 20% (up 3ppts from September) of the respondents said ‘now is a good time’ to buy major household items, while 67% (down 4ppts) said ‘now is a bad time’ to do so.
“Consumer sentiment has been buoyed by the government’s recent economic stimulus, with households clearly feeling more confident about their current and future financial prospects. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid has urgently unlocked limited fiscal policy space in various ways, such as injecting THB136bn into village funds to lift the purchasing power of low income households and providing THB100bn in soft loans to SMEs.
"Despite the V-shaped consumer sentiment rebound, the Thai economy is still entrenched in a U-shaped recovery, and so the improvement in consumer confidence does not have real spillovers into the real economy yet. It is also not clear whether the fiscal multiplier will be sufficiently large to mitigate the weak external demand and lingering domestic political uncertainty. Should economic growth continue to disappoint despite the government’s recent fiscal efforts, we cannot rule out another 25bps cut in the policy rate by the end of the year to 1.25%.
"Nonetheless, the V-shaped recovery in consumer sentiment is one of the first sustained positive economic signals we have seen in some time and adds a degree of optimism to our view that the Thailand economy is finally in the process of basing.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2015.
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