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ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence rose in December to 147.8

The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,700 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 22 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of December 2015.
HIGHLIGHTS

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence index has closed 2015 with a strong increase at 147.8 (up 3.6pts m/m). Although the index is still 4.2pts lower than it was a year ago (Dec 14: 152.0), it is still clearly above the long-run average (2005-2015) of 131.6.


  • In terms of personal finances, 37% (unchanged) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than a year ago. Meanwhile, 11% (down 2ppts m/m) said their families are ‘worse off’, the lowest for the indicator since January 2015.

  • In addition, 68% (unchanged) of the respondents expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. However, 6% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’, the highest figure recorded for the indicator since February 2012.

  • In terms of the Indonesian economy, 81% (up 3ppts) of the respondents expect the country to have ‘good times’ financially in the next 12 months. At the same time, 18% (down 4ppts) believe there will be ‘bad times’.

  • Over the longer term, 90% (up 1ppt) of the respondents expect the Indonesian economy to have ‘good times’ over the next five years; only 9% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

  • 51% (up 3ppts) of the respondents felt ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items, while 44% (down 4ppts) believed ‘now is a bad time’ to do so.
ANZ Chief Economist South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire said:

"Indonesian consumers ended 2015 on a positive note with a strong increase in consumer confidence, driven by optimism about the financial outlook for the economy over the next 12 months and positive assessment of whether it was a good time to make big-ticket purchases.

"We believe that there were three causal factors behind the improvement in sentiment in December.

"First, the significant improvement of the Indonesian rupiah in the second half of December would have added to perceptions of stronger purchasing power and at the margin to financial stability.

"Second, the announcement of likely cuts in key diesel and petrol prices in January would have also enhanced expectations of improving personal financial situation and purchasing power.

"Finally, the resignations of several high ranking bureaucrats in Ministries associated with delays to the Jokowi reform agenda would also have added to perceptions that 2016 will be a year when the promised reforms on which Jokowi was swept into power will eventually be implemented.

"As this is our last release of the local consumer confidence survey, we are pleased to see that the Indonesian consumer has ended 2015 on a firmer footing.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating - December 2015 - 147.8

ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating - December 2015 - 147.8

Click to view the latest, and the final, ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Release PDF - December 2015.


However, please note - the Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence series will continue next month as per usual.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Indonesian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0