Unemployment rises to 9.7% in December - Under-employment at record high

• A record 13,007,000 Australians are in the workforce (up 106,000 since December 2014) and 11,751,000 Australians are employed (up a large 252,000 since December 2014);
  
  
• Now 7,387,000 Australians are employed full-time – down 178,000 since December 2014;
  
  
• However a record 4,364,000 Australians are employed part-time (up a large 430,000 since December 2014); Of concern is the record 1,434,000 Australians under-employed – working part-time and looking for more hours or a full-time job: 11% of the workforce – up 188,000 (or 1.3%) since December 2014;
  
  
• As school-leavers seek jobs unemployment has increased for the third straight month to 1,256,000 Australians: 9.7% of the workforce – down 146,000  since December 2014 with the unemployment rate down 1.2%;
  
  
• Now a record 2,690,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed: 20.7% of the workforce – up 42,000 (up 0.1%) since December 2014.
  
  
• This month’s increase from 9.2% to 9.7% means the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is now 3.9% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for November 2015 (5.8%).

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan says:

“The significant number of unemployed workers (1.256 million – 9.7%), and the growing number of under-employed Australians (1.434 million – 11.0%) working part-time who want a full-time job, are the Government’s greatest concerns and responsibilities heading towards this year’s Federal Election.

“In December, the Australian workforce grew to a record 13.007 million – the first time over 13 million Australians have been either in work or looking for work. However, the growing workforce has not provided jobs at the same pace with a record high 2.69 million Australians (20.7%) now unemployed or under-employed.

“As school-leavers enter the workforce both unemployment – 1.256 million (9.7%, up 0.5% in a month, and up for a third straight month) and under-employment – 1.434 million (11.0%, up 0.6%) increased in December. Australian under-employment is now at a new record high, and has increased by nearly half-a-million workers over the past three months since September.

“The increase in under-employment reflects an increasing casual Australian workforce. In December full-time employment (7,387,000) represented only 62.9% (cf. 65.8% in December 2014) of employed Australians while part-time employment (4,364,000) represented 37.1% (cf. 34.2% a year ago) of employed Australians – a new record high ratio of part-time employment in Australia. Today’s results show that although increasing numbers of Australians are in part-time employment, a growing number of Australians in part-time employment want a full-time job.

“The key point for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition Government as they contemplate when to hold this year’s Federal Election is how to properly manage the Australian economy to ensure growth and provide jobs for the growing Australian workforce. Changing Industrial relations laws and work practices can only be effective if the ‘cash economy’ is tackled at the same time – otherwise any efforts at IR reform will be of limited benefit as Government revenue increases will be negligible.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 463,173 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – December 2015 and includes 3,125 face-to-face interviews in December 2015.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

For further information: 

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2015)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2015)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.