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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down again to 113.2 (down 0.9pts)
January 19 2016
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,013 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend January 16/17, 2016.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.8% to 113.2 this week following a 1.9% fall last week. Further losses on the share market amid ongoing concerns around China’s economic growth prospects are likely to have weighed on confidence.
ANZ co-Head of Australian Economics Felicity Emmett commented:
- Households’ views towards the economic outlook have been a drag on overall confidence recently, and on a downward trend since mid-November. The sub-index on the ‘economic outlook in the next 12 months’ fell sharply (7.5%) last week, following falls in the previous three surveys. This index is now at its lowest level since the appointment of Malcolm Turnbull as PM, suggesting the ‘Turnbull effect’ may be waning off. The sub-index on ‘economic outlook in the next 5 years’ fell 4.6%.
- In contrast, consumers’ confidence in their financial situation bounced last week, largely retracing the falls seen recently. The subindex on ‘finances compared to a year ago’ rose 8.6%, following a 9.9% fall in the previous week and ‘finances in the next 12 months’ rose 4.8%, retracing falls seen in the previous two weeks.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell a modest 0.8% this week, leaving levels just a tick (0.4%) above their long run average. This follows a dip in the previous week which was likely driven by news flow on global financial market volatility and concerns over China’s economic growth. While this week’s fall in confidence may be impacted by ongoing global concerns and share market weakness, subsequent readings will be crucial in assessing whether these concerns have a short-lived impact or reflect a more persistent shift in consumer confidence. The impact of financial market instability is a reminder that global shocks provide ever-present risks for a small open economy like Australia.
"On a more positive note, conditions in the labour market are expected to remain strong in the near term and will be a positive factor for consumer confidence and the Australian economy in the short term. Over the 12-18 month outlook however, challenges from a shaky global backdrop and a softening housing moment will weigh on economic growth and consumer confidence.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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