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ALP & L-NP now too close to call as electors react to Government forcing Senate voting changes last week as Turnbull today recalls Parliament in April for Double Dissolution Election showdown

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, March 12/13 & 19/20, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,948 Australian electors.
In mid-March ALP support is 50.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the election would be too close to call.

Primary support for the L-NP is 40% (down 3%) with ALP at 33% (up 3.5%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 14%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4% (down 1%), 18% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others are at 8% (unchanged).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly this week - up 1.5pts to 103.5 with 43% (up 1.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, March 12/13 & 19/20, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,948 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are favouring the ALP.  Men: L-NP 52% (down 3%) cf. ALP 48% (up 3%); Women: ALP 52.5% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 3.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 61.5% cf. L-NP 38.5%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%). However, the L-NP leads with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in three Australian States with three favouring the ALP. The LNP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48% and New South Wales: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% and the ALP leads in South Australia: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%, Victoria: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% and Tasmania: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP 50.5% (up 3.5%) now just in front of the L-NP 49.5% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after a chaotic week in which the Coalition Government with the help of the Greens forced contentious electoral changes through the Senate against the wishes of the ALP and the cross-benchers who face losing their seats under the new system.

“Following on from last week’s Senate voting reform, Turnbull today turned up the heat on the Senate cross-benchers by deciding to recall Parliament in four weeks’ time to debate the reintroduction of the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC).

“Turnbull has explicitly told the Senate cross-benchers to either pass the Bill restoring the ABCC or face a Double Dissolution Election on Saturday July 2. To facilitate the potential calling of a Double Dissolution Election – which would have to be done by Wednesday May 11, Turnbull has also brought forward this year’s Federal Budget to the first Tuesday in May – a week earlier.

“Although the restoration of the ABCC is being used as a potential trigger to call an early election, the election will be fought on economic issues and taxation.

“In terms of creating jobs and reducing unemployment Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is on the record saying Labor will reduce Australian unemployment to 5%. However, ABS unemployment (5.8% in February) is not a real reflection of the Australian labour market. The latest Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate shows Australia’s real level of unemployment (10.0% - 1.319 million) and under-employment (8.8% - 1.161 million) are far higher than the estimates published by the ABS.

“By relying on the ‘wrong’ ABS unemployment figures Shorten is making the same mistake made by previous Governments which has led to the same policy errors that haven’t addressed Australia’s major problem – tackling the 18.8% (2.48 million) of Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“To reduce Australia’s ‘real’ level of unemployment and under-employment the Government must introduce comprehensive industrial relations reform that cuts ‘red tape’ such as lowering or eliminating excessive penalty rates for working on weekends and public holidays and which would lead to higher productivity and wages across the whole workforce. The Government must also make an effort to deal with Australia’s large ‘cash economy’ that undercuts legitimate Australian businesses and facilitates massive tax avoidance.

“The first step is to ‘recognise’ the problem of Australia’s true unemployment and under-employment. Only by using accurate statistics can the Australian Government, and institutions including the Reserve Bank of Australia, implement the correct economic policies. For instance, the Reserve Bank should reduce Australia’s ridiculously high interest rates today!

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6723 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends February March 12/13 & 19/20, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,948 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed  3% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:




Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093

Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - March 21, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate


25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%