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Turnbull supported as Liberal Leader by 41% (down 23%) while Plibersek (22%) and Albanese (20%) still well ahead of Shorten 14% (up 5%) for ALP

A telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights after this week’s Federal Budget (May 4-5, 2016) finds:

A telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights after this week’s Federal Budget (May 4-5, 2016) finds:

  • Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is again clearly preferred as Liberal Leader by 41% of electors (despite his support dropping by a large 23% since October 20-22, 2015) well ahead of Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 24% (up 12%) and former Prime Minister Tony Abbott 7% (down 1%).

  • L-NP voters easily prefer Turnbull as Liberal Party Leader 56% (down 14%), ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop 17% (up 10%), Tony Abbott 10% (down 2%), and Treasurer Scott Morrison 8% (up 3%).

  • Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 22% (down 5%) of electors is still the preferred Labor Leader ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 20% (down 3%), Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 14% (up 5%) and shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen 8% (up 3%).

  • Tanya Plibersek 23% (down 11%) is also preferred amongst ALP supporters ahead of Anthony Albanese 18% (down 3%) and Bill Shorten 18% (up a significant 8%).

  • If Mr Turnbull were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, electors clearly prefer Julie Bishop as Prime Minister 42% (down 4%) from Scott Morrison 12% (down 3%). Their L-NP support levels to their overall support with Bishop 41% (down 5%) clearly preferred to Scott Morrison 19% (down 2%).

  • If Labor Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Tanya Plibersek 25% (down 3%) is preferred as ALP Leader ahead of Anthony Albanese 23% (down 1%) and Chris Bowen 10% (up 4%). Their support amongst ALP voters also favours Plibersek 27% (down 9%) over Albanese 22% (down 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is still the preferred Liberal Leader despite a big drop in support since October just after Turnbull became Prime Minister – 41% (down 23%) but still well ahead of Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 24% (up 12%) and the man he deposed last September, Tony Abbott 7% (down 1%).

“Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has increased his personal support as preferred ALP Leader over the past six months to 14% (up 5%), but still trails Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek 22% (down 5%) and Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 20% (down 3%).

“The ALP’s best chance of a surprise victory during the upcoming Federal Election may be a last minute leadership switch to Plibersek – a re-run of what the ALP did in 1983 when Bob Hawke replaced Bill Hayden as ALP Leader on the day Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser called an early Federal Election.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week May 4-5, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross section of 584 electors.

For the ‘poll-watchers’ out there this latest telephone Morgan Poll revealed a two-party preferred lead for the L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% based on how a cross-section of 584 Australian electors said they would vote – a direct reversal of the latest multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends which showed the L-NP 49% cf. ALP 51% on a two-party preferred basis.


Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Tony Abbott as
Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull
 as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

38

44

64

41

56

34

39

21

J. Bishop

27

15

12

24

17

32

32

23

Abbott

12

13

8

7

10

5

2

11

Joyce

3

5

3

6

5

5

3

16

Morrison

5

5

4

5

8

2

3

9

Pyne

2

1

1

2

1

2

6

2

Robb

*

*

-

2

-

4

1

2

Hockey

5

5

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

1

*

1

1

1

-

5

Can’t say

7

11

8

12

2

15

14

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Treasurer Joe Hockey was removed from this question following his decision to resign from his seat in Parliament made after he left the front-bench.


Preferred Coalition Leader other than Malcolm Turnbull

Electors who preferred Malcolm Turnbull were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Julie Bishop, Scott Morrison, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne and Barnaby Joyce?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Malcolm Turnbull.

Tony Abbott as
Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

40

47

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

J. Bishop

30

19

46

42

41

48

46

31

Morrison

7

8

15

12

19

5

9

13

Abbott

n/a

n/a

10

11

17

5

3

11

Joyce

4

7

7

9

10

8

6

19

Pyne

2

2

4

5

4

5

8

2

Robb

1

*

2

3

*

7

4

3

Hockey

6

6

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

7

Can’t say

9

10

15

16

7

20

23

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Treasurer Joe Hockey was removed from this question following his decision to resign from his seat in Parliament made after he left the front-bench.


Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Prime Minister
Tony Abbott

Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

23

26

27

22

17

23

40

19

Albanese

13

19

23

20

24

18

18

23

Shorten

21

12

9

14

15

18

8

7

Swan

10

10

10

8

7

10

6

4

Bowen

5

7

5

8

11

8

3

6

Burke

4

4

5

3

3

5

-

1

Macklin

4

4

4

3

3

3

1

8

Someone else

1

2

2

1

1

1

-

4

Can’t say

19

16

15

21

19

14

24

28

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

Prime Minister
Tony Abbott

Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

April 21-22,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

26

29

28

25

20

27

41

19

Albanese

16

21

24

23

26

22

19

24

Bowen

8

7

6

10

13

10

7

6

Swan

15

12

11

9

8

13

6

6

Burke

5

5

6

4

5

6

-

1

Macklin

6

4

5

4

4

4

1

10

Someone else

1

2

2

1

1

1

-

4

Can’t say

23

20

18

24

23

17

26

30

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.