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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence holds up in June - now at 143.7
June 22 2016
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in June was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ Economist Louis Lam said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index edged down to 143.7 in June, from 144.0 in in the previous month.
- In terms of personal finances, 47.7% (last 49.5%) of respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially. Meanwhile, 13.1% (last 18.4%) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 64.8% (last 66.4%) expected their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 3.7% (last 6.4%) who expected conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ over the next year declined to 54.5% (last 55.8%), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ fell to 13.6% (last 17.2%). On longer-term economic performance, 62.8% (last 63.5%) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 14.0% (last 14.7%) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- Respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items declined to 41.2% (last 47.1%), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so rose to 8.3% (last 5.7%).
- Inflation expectations rose to 4.51% (last 3.67%) in June.
“Today's figures suggest that Chinese consumer sentiment basically holds up as domestic financial markets have stabilised. The slight decline in June does not change our impression that the economy continues to transform itself into a consumption-led economy.
"Real estate policy holds the key. To some extent, the recovery of the real estate sector in the past twelve months has offered firm support to China's consumption level due to a positive wealth effect. However, as property prices skyrocket, the rising cost of living will also start to bite and put pressure on spending on other items. Chinese policymakers will need to strive for balance in order to sustain the consumption growth in the future.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - June 2016.
This is the last edition of the ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence report.
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