Over 2.6 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in May

• In May the total Australian workforce was 13,074,000 (up 291,000 in 12 months) and employment grew to 11,790,000 (up 376,000);
  
  
• However the increase in employment was almost entirely driven by a large increase in part-time employment which rose 346,000 to 4,238,000 while full-time employment rose a modest 30,000 to 7,552,000;
  
  
• Real unemployment is at 9.8%, down 0.9% from a year ago but under-employment is up 2.8% to 10.2% over the same period. The rise in under-employment is a direct consequence of the increasing proportion of part-time employment at the expense of full-time jobs;
  
  
• The total of 2.622 million Australians unemployed or under-employed is the 20th straight month more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work, and only the fourth time this figure has exceeded 2.6 million Australians.
  
  
• The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2017 (5.7%).
  
  

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – May 2017. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says Australia’s 2.6 million unemployed and under-employed need policy reforms implemented now rather than in three years:

“The Australian economy is generating jobs – a total of 376,000 over the last year. However most of these jobs are part-time (346,000) rather than full-time (30,000) and this contributes to a growing problem of under-employment which has grown by 391,000 over the same time period.

“Unfortunately any increase to the minimum wage above inflation and the over award payments (weekend and public holiday penalty rates) means there is no incentive for employers of unskilled staff such as in retail and hospitality businesses to open for additional hours or take on more staff.

“For this reason last week’s Fair Work Commission’s decisions to increase the minimum wage by $22 per week (+3.3%) and partly defer cuts to Sunday penalty rates over three years instead of now have dealt a significant blow to the prospect of more jobs for Australia’s unemployed and under-employed.

“Australia’s 2.622 million unemployed and under-employed are looking for work today. The Federal Government’s need to create jobs and generate GDP growth will not happen without major industrial reforms – the current weakness in GDP growth (0.3% in March Quarter) and Roy Morgan May Business Confidence falling 2.4% to 113.8 is not good news.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 535,118 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – May 2017 and includes 3,866 face-to-face interviews in May 2017.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

For further information:

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2017)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2017)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.