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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence consolidates at 122.1

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,127 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend June 16/17, 2018.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence weakened slightly (-0.7%) over the week to 122.1, a solid performance following the large 5.6% jump the previous week and leaving the index comfortably above its long term average. The details were mixed, with two out of the five subindices posting positive readings.
  • Expectations about future financial conditions rose 3.1%, building on the 1.6% gain seen over the week before. The index is now at its highest since January 2017. Views towards current financial conditions, however, fell 4.9% over the week, but remain above the long term average.
  • Consumers’ views towards economic conditions deteriorated. The future economic conditions index fell slightly (-0.8%) from the previous week. The current economic conditions index fell 3.8% to 110.9, reversing some of the sizeable gain posted the previous week (+8.9%). 
  •  The ‘time to buy a household item’ subindex rose 1.6% last week to 146.3, the highest since January 2016 and well above its long term average (134.0). Four week moving average inflation expectations edged up to 4.6% (previously 4.4%).

ANZ's Senior Economist, Jo Masters, commented:

“It is encouraging to see consumer confidence consolidate the large bounce recorded the previous week. The rise this week largely reflected improved sentiment toward future financial conditions, which may reflect the drop in the unemployment rate, to 5.4%, recorded in the May data last week.

"Views about the economy didn’t fare as well. Geopolitical tensions are likely to have contributed to sentiment about current economic conditions, while views on future economic conditions may also have been weighed down by ongoing concerns over the softening housing market, as well as still low wage growth, high levels of debt and a low savings rate.

"Given uncertainties about trade protectionism and domestic concerns, we remain cautious about how easily upbeat confidence will be reflected in stronger consumer spending. Indeed, we continue to see a pick-up in wages as essential for a boost to overall household spending.”




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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2