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Indonesian Consumer Confidence highest since Jokowi inauguration

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,138 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of January 2018.
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 1.1pts to 156.5 in January 2018 to its highest in more than three years (since November 2014 when Consumer Confidence was 161.4). Consumer Confidence is now a significant 9.1pts higher than a year ago in January 2017 (147.4) and a large 21.9pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 134.6.

The rise in Consumer Confidence was driven by more confidence about personal financial situations and the performance of the Indonesian economy over the next year.

Now 90% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months (a new all-time record high for this indicator) and only 10% (down 1ppt) say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially (a new all-time record low for this indicator).

And looking at the longer-term now 94% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia willll have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 5% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.

Now 40% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago compared to just 8% (down 1ppt) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since October 2014 over three years ago).

A large majority, 70% (up 1ppt), of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year  compared to just 4% (unchanged) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Over half of Indonesians, 56% (up 1ppt), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 41% (unchanged) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating - January 2018 - 156.5

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ January 2018 (n=2,138).


Consumer Confidence jumps most in Kalimantan, highest in Sulawesi

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region reveals Consumer Confidence has increased across the country with clearly the biggest increase in the Northern island of Kalimantan, up a stunning 41.9pts to 162.2 over the past 12 months – now the third highest in the country.

Kalimantan trails only Sulawesi which has consistently had the highest Consumer Confidence in the nation now at an exceptional 182.1, up 5.7pts from a year ago, and East Java on 162.3, up 6.3pts.

Defying the nation-wide trend is the tourist island of Bali which has seen Consumer Confidence decline to a still respectable 150.0, down 9.1pts from a year ago.

In contrast to previous months there is no clear geographical trend for Consumer Confidence across the country but the region around the capital Jakarta and West Java now has the lowest Consumer Confidence in the nation at 147.6, although this is still up by 8.2pts from a year ago.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating - January 2018 - Regions

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ January 2017 (n=2,145) & January 2018 (n=2,138).

Consumer Confidence is very high throughout Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia February 24/25, 2018 – 117.9) and New Zealand (February 2018 – 127.7) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has increased again to start 2018, up for the fourth month in a row by 1.1pts to 156.5. Consumer Confidence is a significant 9.1ps higher than a year ago and at its highest since the month following Jokowi’s inauguration in October 2014.

“Consumer Confidence in Indonesia remains far higher than in southern neighbours Australia (February 24/25, 2018 – 117.9) and New Zealand (February 2018 – 127.7) covered extensively last week here.

“Driving Consumer Confidence higher to begin 2018 was more confidence about personal financial situations with 40% (up 1ppt) now saying they are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 70% (up 1ppt) expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year.

“Of course Indonesian views about the future performance of the Indonesian economy remain exceptionally strong with a record high 90% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘good times’ for the Indonesian economy over the next year and a near record high 94% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘good times’ for the Indonesian economy over the next five years.

“Consumer Confidence in the northern island of Kalimantan has been the biggest driver of the increase over the last 12 months, up a stunning 41.9pts to 162.2 just behind East Java on 162.3 and the clear leader Sulawesi on an exceptional 182.1.

“Of interest is that for the first time in two years, since January 2016, Consumer Confidence is now lowest around the capital Jakarta and West Java at 147.6 although this is up a significant 8.2pts over the past year.”


The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,138 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of January 2018.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

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