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Indonesian Consumer Confidence falls from three year high

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ February 2018 (n=2,132).

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is down 2.4pts to 154.1 in February 2018. Consumer Confidence is now 7.6pts higher than a year ago in February 2017 (146.5) and a large 19.4pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 134.7.

The fall in Consumer Confidence was driven by slightly less confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy over the next year and next five years.

Now 37% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago compared to just 9% (up 1ppt) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A reduced majority, 69% (down 1ppt), of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year  compared to just 3% (down 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Now 88% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and only 12% (up 2ppts) say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term now 93% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia willll have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 7% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

Over half of Indonesians, 56% (unchanged), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 42% (up 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia March 24/25, 2018 – 117.4) and New Zealand (February 2018 – 128.0) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence - February 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ February 2018 (n=2,132).


Consumer Confidence higher for Women and Indonesians aged 14-34

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by gender and age reveals Consumer Confidence has increased for both women and men over the last year and for all age groups under 65.

Consumer Confidence for women is now at 156.3, up 7.3pts in a year, and substantially higher than for men up 8pts 151.9. Consumer Confidence for women over the past year has averaged 153.1 cf. 151.2 for men.

Analysing different age groups shows a strong co-relation between age and consumer confidence with younger Indonesians having higher consumer confidence than older age groups.

Indonesians aged 14-24 have a consumer confidence of 156.6 in February, up a strong 8.4pts from a year ago and slightly higher than their older peers aged 25-34 who have a consumer confidence of 156.0 in February, up 6.6pts in a year.

Indonesians aged 35-49 now have a consumer confidence of 153.3, up 5.4pts in a year while the biggest increase over the past year has been for Indonesians aged 50-64 for which consumer confidence has increased a significant 14.7pts to 148.6.

Indonesians aged 65+ now have the lowest consumer confidence of any age group at a still impressive 146.5 and were the only age group to experience a decline over the last 12 months, down by 1pt.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Gender & Age - February 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ February 2017 (n=2,139) & February 2018 (n=2,132).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has fallen from a more than three year high to start the year, down 2.4pts to 154.1 in February. Indonesian Consumer Confidence is still 7.6pts higher than a year ago and far higher than in southern neighbours Australia (117.4) and New Zealand (128.0).

“Driving Consumer Confidence lower in February was less confidence about personal financial situations with 37% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians saying they are ‘better off financially’ than this time last year and 69% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians saying they expect to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year.

“However analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by gender and age reveals both genders, and all age groups under the age of 65 have substantially increased their confidence over the past year despite the pullback in February.

“Indonesian women with consumer confidence of 156.3, up 7.3pts in a year, have significantly higher consumer confidence than Indonesian men with a consumer confidence of 151.9, up by 8pts.

“Analysing by age shows that younger Indonesians under age 35 have clearly higher consumer confidence than older age groups led by the youngest of all aged 14-24 with consumer confidence of 156.6, up 8.4pts ahead of 25-34 year olds with consumer confidence of 156, up 6.6pts.

“Alhough they are still behind their younger compatriots Indonesians aged 50-64 have seen the biggest increase in consumer confidence over the past year, up a significant 14.7pts to 148.6. In contrast, those slightly older Indonesians aged 65 and over are the only group to have seen a decline in consumer confidence over the past year now at 146.5, down 1pt.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,132 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of February 2018.


For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0