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Indonesian Consumer Confidence bounces to 156.3

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ March 2018 (n=2,146).
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 2.2pts to 156.3 in March 2018. Consumer Confidence is now 5.5pts higher than a year ago in March 2017 (150.8) and a large 21.4pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 134.9.

The increase in Consumer Confidence was driven by more confidence about Indonesian personal financial situations compared to a year ago and whether now is a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ time to buy major household items.

Now 40% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago compared to just 10% (up 1ppt) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A reduced majority, 68% (down 1ppt), of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year  compared to just 3% (unchanged) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Now 88% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and only 12% (unchanged) say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term now 95% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia willll have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 5% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

Over half of Indonesians, 59% (up 3ppts), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 38% (down 4ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia April 28/29, 2018 – 118.4) and New Zealand (March 2018 – 128.0) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ March 2018 (n=2,146).


Consumer Confidence higher among more educated Indonesians

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by the highest level of education attained by respondents shows that consumer confidence in Indonesia is heavily co-related to education. Generally, the more educated an Indonesian the more confident they will be.

Consumer confidence is highest for Indonesians now at university at 193.8, up 17.5pts over the past year – the largest increase of any education level. The high consumer confidence for university students is also consistent with the analysis of consumer confidence by age explored in last month’s release which showed Indonesian Consumer Confidence highest for those aged 14-24 and available to view here.

Indonesians with a university degree also have consumer confidence well above the national average at 172.7 in March, up 10.9pts in a year, and clearly the second highest of any level of education.

Indonesians with a tertiary diploma have consumer confidence of 166.7 in March, up 3.3pts in a year and well above the national average and those with lesser education levels.

All other education levels have consumer confidence below the national average.

Indonesians who have completed secondary school have consumer confidence of 156.2, up 2.3pts in a year and now just below the national average and clearly higher than Indonesians who attended secondary school but didn’t graduate who have a consumer confidence of 152.3, up 6.4pts in a year.

The lowest levels of consumer confidence are with those with the lowest levels of education.

Indonesians with no formal schooling were the only education level to go against the trend of the last 12 months with consumer confidence for this group dropping by 8.5pts in a year to 152.1 and Indonesians who have attended primary school have the lowest consumer confidence of all at 150.0, although this is up a significant 16.2pts in a year.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by highest level of education achieved

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ March 2017 (n=2,125) & March 2018 (n=2,146).


I
ra Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has rebounded by 2.2pts to 156.3 in March and is now 5.5pts higher than a year ago and remains far higher than in southern neighbours Australia (118.4) and New Zealand (128.0).

“Driving Consumer Confidence higher in March was increasing confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy over the next five years with 95% (up 2ppts) now saying they expect ‘good times’ and 59% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.

“Special analysis of Indonesian Consumer Confidence by education level reveals that the more educated an Indonesian is the more confident they tend to be at the state of the Indonesian economy.

“It is university students with a very high consumer confidence of 193.8 in March, up a large 17.5pts over the past year with clearly the highest consumer confidence of any education level followed by Indonesians with a university degree with consumer confidence of 172.7.

“At the other end of the scale it is Indonesians that lack any higher education, or even secondary education, with the lowest consumer confidence. Indonesians with no formal schooling have consumer confidence of 152.1 in March just ahead of Indonesians who have finished primary school, but never went to secondary school, with consumer confidence of 150.0.

"Of course, it is worth remembering that though these are lower than other classes of Indonesians, these figures are far higher than in neighbouring countries such as Australia and New Zealand.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,146 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of March 2018.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0