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Indonesian Consumer Confidence up to three year high of 158.1

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,137 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of April 2018.
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 1.8pts to 158.1 in April 2018. Consumer Confidence is now 7.1pts higher than a year ago in April 2017 (151.0) and a large 23.1pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 135.

The increase in Consumer Confidence was driven by increases in consumer sentiment towards the next 12 months in terms of both personal finances and the Indonesian economy.

Over the last year the strong increases in Indonesian Consumer Confidence have been driven by large increases in the two lower household income quintiles, although confidence is up amongst all income classes. These factors are covered extensively later on in this release.

Now 40% (unchanged) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago compared to just 8% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

An increasing majority of 71% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator in over two years since March 2016) compared to just 4% (up 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Now 90% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and only 10% (down 2ppts) espect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 95% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 5% expect ‘bad times’.

Over half of Indonesians, 59% (unchanged), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 37% (down 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items – the lowest figure for this indicator in over three years since November 2014.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence - April 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ April 2018 (n=2,137).


Consumer confidence propelled higher by lower household income quintiles

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by household income quintile shows increases across all five quintiles over the past year with the strongest increases occurring amongst the two lowest income quintiles.

Consumer Confidence amongst the lowest household income quintile has increased 16.5pts to 144.3 and amongst the second lowest quintile by 13.7pts to 156.1. Although these are the two largest increases over the last 12 months these two quintiles remain the lowest and both are beneath the national average.

Although Consumer Confidence has increased the least amongst the highest household income quintile, by only 1pt to 168.5, consumer confidence is still higher than for all other household income quintiles.

Consumer Confidence amongst the second highest quintile has increased 2.8pts to 161.2 and amongst the middle-income quintile by 5.7pts to 159.3.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by household income quintile – April 2017 vs April 2018

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Household Income Quintile - April 2017 v April 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ April 2017 (n=2,147) & April 2018 (n=2,137).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has increased by 1.8pts to 158.1 in April and is now at its highest for more than three years since November 2014 (161.4). Consumer Confidence in Indonesia is now nearly 40pts higher than in southern neighbours Australia (121.6) and New Zealand (120.5).

“Driving Consumer Confidence higher in April has been increasing confidence about the year ahead with 71% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians expecting to be ‘better off’ this time next year and 90% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months.

"Analysing longer-term trends shows it is huge jumps in confidence for lower household income quintiles that have propelled the increase in Consumer Confidence by 7.1pts over the last 12 months.

“The lowest household income quintile has increased by 16.5pts to 144.3 and the second lowest quintile has increased by 13.7pts to 156.1 over the last 12 months. Although these are still below the national average these improvements have closed the gap on higher income quintiles.

“Despite being virtually unchanged on a year ago Consumer Confidence for the highest household income quintile at 168.5 is still clearly higher than for any other income quintile.

“The improvements for household income quintiles across the board are good news for Indonesian President Jokowi who faces re-election in just under a year’s time in April 2019.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,137 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of April 2018.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia May 19/20, 2018 – 121.6) and New Zealand (April 2018 – 120.5) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

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