ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence dipped 2 points to 118 in July, around its historical average. But winter weather typically takes a toll: seasonally adjusted confidence actually rose 1 point to 121.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence dipped 1.6 points to 118.4 in July, around its historical average. But winter weather typically takes a toll: seasonally adjusted confidence actually rose 1 point to 121.
- Current conditions are pretty upbeat, but households remain a little wary about the outlook. Disquiet is focused on prospects for the broader economy rather than households’ own finances.
It’s dark and cold, let’s face it. But looking through that, consumer confidence is about par, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index. The headline data slipped 1.6 points to 118.4 in July, but on a seasonally adjusted basis the index lifted 1 point to 121. Both are sitting around the historical average.
The Current Conditions Index fell 1 point to 124.9 in July, while the Future Conditions Index fell 2 points to 114.1, well below its average (121).
- Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situations lifted 3 points, with a net 14% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
- A net 25% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 1 point.
- A net 36% say it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 4 points.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook eased another 4 points to +3%, the lowest reading since March 2016. The five-year outlook also dipped, down 2 points to +14%.
- Wellington is by far the most confident region at 132 (+8pts). Confidence fell 2 points in Auckland and 4 points in the rest of the North Island, to sit in equal last place on 115. The South Island is middle of the pack.
- Expectations for national house price inflation were little changed at 3.7% y/y %, with Wellington back in the lead at 4.8%. General inflation expectations were again unchanged at 3.9% – marking the first time in several years that a spike to these levels has been sustained.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence has taken a step down since the start of the year, but only to about average levels, rather than anything alarming. While perceptions of current conditions remain pretty solid, there is a degree of wariness about the future, focused on the economy as a whole rather than respondents’ own financial situations. It’s an unusually large gap between the two at present (in this direction – see the final chart on page 4). However, it’s not unintuitive: headlines about the economy have turned more negative of late but the labour market is tight and prospects for household incomes are good.
At these levels, consumer confidence is still supportive for spending (figure 2). Par isn’t a bad outcome: exuberance would be unhelpful given household debt levels, but a sharp drop in consumer confidence would be problematic for the growth outlook.
Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - July 2018.
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