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Indonesian Consumer Confidence up in June to 158

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ June 2017 (n=2,147) & June 2018 (n=2,144).

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 1pt to 158.0 in June 2018. Consumer Confidence is now 7.5pts higher than a year ago in June 2017 (150.5) and 22.8pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 135.2.

Since June last year the year on year increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence has been driven by out-sized increases of Consumer Confidence in Bali, Kalimantan and Northern Sumatra.

The small increase in Consumer Confidence this month was driven by small increases in consumer sentiment towards their personal finances and more Indonesians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.

In June the vast majority of 72% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator for over two years since March 2016). Only 3% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

An increasing plurality of 42% (up 1ppt in a month) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly three years since August 2015). Only 9% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Now 89% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months and only 11% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 93% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 6% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.

An increasing majority of Indonesians, 60% (up 2ppts), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator in nearly four years since November 2014) and 37% (down 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence - June 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ June 2018 (n=2,144).


Consumer confidence pushed higher by large increases in Bali & Kalimantan

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region shows the biggest increases over the past year have been in Bali, up 32.9pts to 174.4, Kalimantan, up 16.3pts to 159.4 and Northern Sumatra up 12.3pts to 160.8.

However, despite these strong increases, the island of Sulawesi retains clearly the highest Consumer Confidence of any part of Indonesia now at 181.8 up 4.1pts from a year ago.

In fact only the region of Central Java & Yogyakarta has lower Consumer Confidence than a year ago now at 156.1, down 0.3pts from June 2017 which puts the region as one of three that have lower Consumer Confidence than the national average.

Consumer Confidence increased in both Southern Sumatra, by 9pts to 153.7 and Jakarta & West Java, by 7.5pts to 152.3, however these two neighbouring regions now have the lowest Consumer Confidence of any of the eight Indonesian regions measured here.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Region: June 2017 vs June 2018
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Region - June 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ June 2017 (n=2,147) & June 2018 (n=2,144).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has increased 1pt to 158.0 in June and is now 7.5pts higher (+5%) than a year ago in June 2017 (150.5). Indonesian Consumer Confidence remains substantially higher than in southern neighbours Australia (118.9) and New Zealand (120.0).

“Consumer Confidence has increased across most parts of Indonesia over the past year led by the tourist island of Bali – up a stunning 32.9pts to 174.4 although Bali still trails the island of Sulawesi now with a Consumer Confidence of 181.8 in June, up 4.1pts from a year ago.

“Although Consumer Confidence across all parts of Indonesia is exceptionally high, above 150 in all eight regions, it is now lowest in and around the capital of Jakarta & West Java now at 152.3. Neigbouring Southern Sumatra is next lowest at 153.7 while on the other side Central Java & Yogyakarta is the only region to experience a decline over the last year, down 0.3pts to 156.1.

“However on the whole the high rate of Indonesian Consumer Confidence which is now 22.8pts above the long-term average of 135.2 suggests Indonesians remain extremely confident about their personal prospects into the future as well as the prospects for the Indonesian economy going forward.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,144 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of June 2018.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia July 21/22, 2018 – 118.9) and New Zealand (June 2018 – 120.0) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0