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More New Zealanders than Australians expect a ‘troubled’ 2019

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand telephone, SMS and web surveys in New Zealand 1989-2018 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018?”
A special Roy Morgan New Zealand survey taken in mid-December shows 42% of New Zealanders think 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018. Only 10% say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’, 42% expect 2019 will be ‘the same’ as 2018 and 6% don’t know.

This year’s results are significantly different to the last time this survey was conducted towards the end of 2009 when only 25% of New Zealanders expected 2010 would be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2009.

It turns out more New Zealanders (42%) are expecting a ‘ troubled year’ in 2019 than their counterparts across the Tasman in Australia (38%). See here for more details on the Australian results.

This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Next Year – Troubled, peaceful or the same? (New Zealand)

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand telephone, SMS and web surveys in New Zealand 1989-2018 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018?”

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Analysing the results by age shows that the older a New Zealander is the more likely they are to believe that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018. Only 32% of New Zealanders aged 18-24yrs old expect 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 rising to 37% of 25-34yr olds, 40% of 35-49yr olds and a clear majority of 55% of New Zealanders aged 50 years and over.

Men are more concerned than women that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 by a margin of 44% cf. 41% and there are also more men (12%) that expect 2019 to be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018 than women (8%).

In contrast, a majority of women (51%) think 2019 will be ‘the same’ as 2018 or ‘don’t know’ compared to only 44% of men.

Total

NZ

Gender

Age

Total

Australia

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Troubled

42

44

41

32

37

40

55

38

Same

42

38

46

34

49

45

38

47

Peaceful

10

12

8

17

11

11

4

10

Don’t know

6

6

5

17

3

4

3

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Region – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same


Source: This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Analysing by region shows respondents living in South Island cities outside Canterbury including Dunedin, Invercargill and Queenstown are the most concerned about 2019 with 50% expecting this year to be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 compared to only 37% in the Canterbury region surrounding Christchurch.

However it is South Island respondents who are also most optimistic about the prospects for peace in 2019 with 13% of respondents in the Canterbury region including Christchurch and also from the rest of the South Island expecting 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.

In contrast respondents in the capital of Wellington are the most pessimistic about prospects for peace with only 5% saying 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.

Region

Total

NZ

Auckland

Wellington

Other

North Island

Canterbury

Other

South Island

Total

Australia

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Troubled

42

42

45

42

37

50

38

Same

42

43

38

43

46

36

47

Peaceful

10

9

5

10

13

13

10

Don’t know

6

6

12

5

4

1

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says:


“Four times as many New Zealanders (42%) expect 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 compared to the 10% of Kiwis that say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than last year.

“This is a substantial deterioration in views on the following year from the last time we asked this question in New Zealand back in late 2009. At that time only 25% of New Zealanders believed that 2010 would be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2009.

“However, historical precedent shows that this question tends to bring out the ‘gloomy’ side of New Zealanders. For every year back to 1991 that Roy Morgan has asked this question respondents have been more likely to predict a ‘more troubled year’ than a ‘more peaceful year’ coming up.

“This time around New Zealanders are even more concerned that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than their counterparts in Australia. Only 38% of Australians are predicting this year will be ‘more troubled’ than last year.

“This is despite New Zealanders being more optimistic in general about 2019 than Australians – 51% of New Zealanders said 2019 will be a ‘better year’ than 2018 compared to only 44% of Australians as we revealed last week.

“The contrast between the two sentiments is probably best understood as a reflection on how New Zealanders view prospects for themselves and the local economy compared to the prospect of war and terrorism for the world at large.”


Finding No. 7838 – This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders on December 13-14, 2018. They were asked “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018?”



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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2