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Record employment in January driven by increasing full-time jobs

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 617,161 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – January 2019 and includes 4,112 face-to-face interviews in January 2019.
Australian employment increased in January to a record 12.4 million driven by the creation of over 210,000 full-time jobs over the last year to a record high of over 8.25 million full-time jobs

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for January shows:

  • The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, is now 13,650,000, up 195,000 on a year ago. A new record of 12,397,000 Australians were employed in January, up 161,000 over the past year;

  • The increase in employment was driven by a solid increase in full-time employment of 212,000 to 8,257,000. Over the past year part-time employment was down slightly by 51,000 to 4,140,000;

  • 1,253,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in January, up 34,000 on a year ago and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%;

  • In addition 1,300,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 71,000 in a year (down 0.7%);

  • In total 2,553,000 Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January, a decrease of 37,000 in a year (down 0.6%);

  • Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for January is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for December 2018 of 5.0%.


Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – January 2019. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says 2019 has started with some good news as strong growth in full-time jobs over the past year has lifted Australian employment to a new record high:

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show that a record number of nearly 12.4 million Australians were employed in January driven by a rise in full-time employment by over 210,000 over the last year to a new high of over 8.25 million full-time jobs.

“The strong growth in full-time jobs over the last 12 months continues the trend seen in Roy Morgan’s December employment estimates which also showed strong growth in full-time jobs while part-time employment was slightly down on a year ago; down by just over 50,000 to 4.14 million jobs.

“However, despite the continuing growth in employment, there has been little impact made on the high level of labour under-utilisation in Australia. In January there were 1.253 million unemployed Australians, up by 34,000 on a year ago, and equivalent to 9.2% of the workforce and a further 1.3 million Australians (9.5% of the workforce) are under-employed.

“Taken together over 2.5 million Australians (18.7%) are now unemployed and looking for work or employed part-time and looking for more work (under-employed), down only 37,000 on a year ago. Despite steady economic growth over the past few years analysing the employment trends show that over 2 million Australians have fallen into this category for over seven years since late 2011.

“Prime Minister Scott Morrison earlier this week pledged that a re-elected L-NP Government would create over 1.25 million jobs over the next five years. This sounds great however one needs to consider that in the context of high population growth driven by high immigration over the last five years since February 2014 the L-NP Government has created nearly 1.3 million jobs and unemployment and under-employment has barely changed.

“Australians have consistently indicated to Roy Morgan that they’re comfortable with the current rate of immigration however whichever Government is elected at this year’s Federal election needs to find a way to provide new jobs both for new immigrants to Australia as well as the over 2 million long-term unemployed and under-employed consistently revealed by Roy Morgan’s employment estimates."


This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 617,161 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – January 2019 and includes 4,112 face-to-face interviews in January 2019.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).


For further information
:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2019)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2019)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2

For comments or more information please contact:
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