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Indonesian Consumer Confidence drops to lowest since Feb 2018

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,280 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in January throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.
In January 2019 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is down 2.6pts to 156.2. Consumer Confidence is now 0.3pts lower than a year ago in January 2018 (156.5) and 19.9pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 136.3.

Despite a monthly fall, Indonesian Consumer Confidence in January is virtually unchanged on a year ago. Consumer Confidence for Indonesian women is now 3.2pts higher than for Indonesian men and is up 1.1pts on a year ago while Consumer Confidence for Indonesian men has declined by 1.8pts from a year ago. Further details on Consumer Confidence by age and gender below.

The third consecutive monthly fall in January is the first time since early 2017 that Indonesian Consumer Confidence has fallen in three consecutive months and is driven by fewer Indonesians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year and next five years.

Now 37% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 8% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A decreasing majority of 68% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 4% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In January, 88% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 11% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 92% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years (the lowest figure for this indicator for over a year since November 2017) and just 7% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

In January now 61% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 35% (down 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.


Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ January 2019 (n=1,280).


Consumer Confidence barely changed from a year ago but up for Women and down for men

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by gender and age shows although overall Consumer Confidence has barely changed from a year ago, it is up amongst women compared to this time a year ago, but in contrast has decreased for men. Consumer Confidence has also declined substantially for older Indonesians aged 50 years and older since January 2018.

Consumer Confidence for Indonesian women is now at 157.8 in January 2019, up 1.1pts from a year ago, while Consumer Confidence for men has dropped 1.8pts to 154.6 over the same period.

Consumer Confidence by age group shows declines for the youngest and oldest Indonesians while Indonesian in the middle age brackets now have higher Consumer Confidence than a year ago.

Indonesians aged 14-24 years old now have Consumer Confidence of 156.9 in January 2019, down 1.2pts on a year ago, and for older Indonesians aged 50 years and over the decline has been significant, dropping 7.3pts to 141.9. Consumer Confidence for older Indonesians is now well below all other age groups.

In contrast to their younger and older counterparts Consumer Confidence for mid-aged Indonesians aged 25-49 years old, who comprise over 53% of the population, has increased from a year ago.

Consumer Confidence for Indonesians aged 25-34 years old is now higher than any other age group at 159.2, up 2.2pts on a year ago, and for Indonesians aged 35-49 years old it is up by 1.4pts to 159.1.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Gender & Age: January 2018 cf. January 2019


Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Jan. 2018 (n=2,138) & Jan. 2019 (n=1,280).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has dropped for the third straight month in January, down 2.6pts to 156.2 and now lower than a year ago by 0.3pts. Despite the drop, Indonesian Consumer Confidence entering 2019 remains nearly 20pts above the long-run average of 136.3 and well above counterparts in Australia (115.2) and New Zealand (121.7 in January).

“It turns out it is Indonesia’s women who are doing the heavy lifting with keeping Indonesian Consumer Confidence elevated. Consumer Confidence for Indonesian women has increased by 1.1pts from a year ago to 157.8 in January and is now over 3pts higher than for their male counterparts now at 154.6, down 1.8pts.

“In terms of age groups it is Indonesians aged 25-34 years old (159.2) and Indonesians aged 35-49 years old (159.1) who now have clearly the highest Consumer Confidence of any age groups.

“Although Consumer Confidence amongst older Indonesians does tend to be lower than for younger age groups there has been a significant decline for Indonesians aged 50+ years old who now have Consumer Confidence of 141.9, down a significant 7.3pts on a year ago. This may be a concern for President Joko Widodo as he seeks re-election in two months’ time.

“Placing the current level of Consumer Confidence into an electoral context shows that Consumer Confidence today has only just dipped below its level of five years ago at the time of Jokowi’s victory in the 2014 Presidential Election held in July that year.

“Consumer Confidence in July 2014 was measured at 157.7 before jumping 3.7pts to a then record high of 161.4 following Jokowi’s election. Given the continuing high level of Consumer Confidence since Jokowi became President (averaging clearly above 150 during his five years in office) the incumbent President is well placed to secure another five year term.”


The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,280 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in January throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia February 16/17, 2019 – 115.2) and New Zealand (January 2019 – 121.7) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.



For further information
:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0



About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2