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Indonesian Consumer Confidence up 3.3pts to 159.5 in February

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,261 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in February throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.
In February 2019 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 3.3pts to 159.5. Consumer Confidence is now 5.4pts higher than a year ago in February 2018 (154.1) and 23.1pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 136.4.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence in February is up 5.4pts on a year ago and it’s well educated Indonesians with a university degree or other tertiary diploma that have driven this increase although Consumer Confidence is up for Indonesians with all levels of education. Further details on Consumer Confidence by education below.

The increase in February is the first increase for the index since October 2018 and is driven by greater confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy over the next year and the next five years.

Now 40% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 10% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

An increasing majority of 70% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 4% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In February, 92% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 8% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 96% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 4% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

In February now 61% (unchanged) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 36% (up 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ February 2019 (n=1,261).


Consumer Confidence up from a year ago and highest for highly educated Indonesians


Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by education shows increases in Consumer Confidence across all levels of education over the last year. In February 2019 the most educated Indonesians again have easily the highest Consumer Confidence of any Indonesians while the least educated Indonesians have the lowest.

Indonesians with a tertiary diploma/ university degree or now studying at university have the highest Consumer Confidence of Indonesians of any education level up 4.9pts to 174.8 in February – nearly 10% higher than the overall Indonesian Consumer Confidence of 159.5.

Indonesians who graduated secondary school also have a higher Consumer Confidence than the average Indonesian at 163.6 in February, up by 5.3pts on a year ago.

Indonesians who attended secondary school but without graduating have had the biggest increase in Consumer Confidence over the last year up by 6.2pts to 151.9 but still have Consumer Confidence significantly below that of the average Indonesian.

Once again it is the least educated Indonesians that have the lowest Consumer Confidence. Indonesians with a primary school education have Consumer Confidence of 146.2 in February and the smallest increase from a year ago of only 3.8pts.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Education: February 2018 cf. February 2019


Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Feb. 2018 (n=2,132) & Feb. 2019 (n=1,261).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has reversed course after three successive monthly declines increasing by 3.3pts in February to 159.5 and now at its highest since October 2018.

“The increase in Consumer Confidence is good news for President Joko Widodo who faces re-election in a few weeks in Indonesia’s Presidential Election. Over many years and across many countries Roy Morgan has mentioned the strong relationship between Consumer Confidence and political party support. Strong Consumer Confidence favours the party in Government and the latest Roy Morgan Poll released last week shows that Jokowi remains a clear favourite to win another five year term as Indonesia’s President. Jokowi has the support of 57% of Indonesia’s electors compared to 43% for his opponent Prabowo Subianto.

“It is well educated Indonesians with a university degree, tertirary diploma or now at university who have easily the highest Consumer Confidence at an impressive 174.8, up by 4.9pts on a year ago and nearly 15pts higher than for average Indonesians. Although highly educated Indonesians are the most confident, Consumer Confidence has increased for Indonesians of all levels of education from a year ago.

“The high level of Consumer Confidence in Indonesia is not that surprising when one considers the strength of Indonesia economy over the last decade. Indonesia’s annual GDP growth has averaged over 5% over the last decade which includes Jokowi’s first five year term.

“Indonesian Consumer Confidence has averaged an impressive 152.9 since Jokowi was elected to the Presidency in July 2014 and all the indications are that Jokowi is set to win a second five year term at next month’s Presidential election on the back of a strong economy and high Consumer Confidence.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,261 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in February throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia March 23/24, 2019 – 111.8) and New Zealand (February 2019 – 120.8) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.



For further information
:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0



About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2