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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 1.0pt to 121.8 in March

Consumer confidence rose 1 point in March and sits around average levels.
Consumer confidence rose 1 point in March and sits around average levels.

  • Perceptions of current conditions fell 1 point, while the future conditions index rose 2 points.
  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell 1 point.
Consumer confidence was steady in March. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 1 point to 122, around its historical average. Moves were pretty much rounding errors: the Current Conditions Index fell 1 point to 125, while the Future Conditions Index lifted 2 points to 120.

Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation fell 2 points to a net 12% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
  • A net 29% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 2 points.
  • A net 38% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 1 point.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook rose 1 point to a net 10% expecting conditions to improve. The five-year outlook rose 6 points to +21%.
  • By region, Auckland lifted the most, to a 1-year high (up 4 points to 124), but Canterbury and the rest of the South Island were the least confident regions at 121 and 115, respectively.
  • House price inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.7%. They remain weakest in Auckland (1.9%).
  • Inflation expectations lifted 0.3%pts to 3.7%.
Overall, consumer confidence remains buoyed around its historical average despite mounting global and domestic risks. Confidence has picked up from 2018 lows, but caution regarding the overall economic outlook appears to be preventing a break above average levels. However, a high proportion of people thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item suggest robust household spending despite weakness in Auckland house prices and slower housing market activity.

Our confidence composite gauge combines business expectations and intentions with overall consumer sentiment to capture both the demand and supply side of the economy and give a better indicator for growth than either series alone. It continues to suggest that momentum in the economy has slowed considerably (figure 2), but the composite has stabilised at a low level. We see economic growth averaging around 2½% over the next couple of years, with slower population growth and weaker housing wealth effects weighing on consumption growth.



Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - March 2019.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2