Back To Listing

Indonesian Consumer Confidence at 160 in the April election month

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ April 2019 (n=1,281). 
In April 2019 as Indonesians went to the polls to elect a President and a legislature Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts from March to 160.0. This is 1.9pts higher than a year ago in April 2018 (158.1) and a significant 23.3pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 136.7.

Although Indonesian Consumer Confidence in April is down slightly on a month ago the overall figure is up 1.9pts on a year ago. The increase from a year ago has been driven by Indonesians in White Collar and Professional/ Managerial employment as well as Indonesians not in paid employment at all. Further details on Consumer Confidence by occupation and employment below.

Detailed analysis of the latest consumer confidence (April 2019) compared to a month ago shows fewer Indonesians expecting to be ‘better off’ this time next year and there to be ‘good times’ economically for Indonesia over the next 12 months.

Now 46% (up 5ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 12% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A decreasing majority of 70% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 5% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In April, 90% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 9% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 95% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 4% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.

An increasing majority of 64% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 35% (up 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.



Consumer Confidence up from a year ago driven by increases amongst White Collar workers


Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by employment status and occupation shows increases for workers employed full-time or part-time as well as for workers not currently in paid employment.

In terms of employment status the biggest increase came for workers not currently in paid employment who now have Consumer Confidence of 160.7 and above the national average after an increase of 3pts on a year ago.

The increase for those in full-time employment was more modest, up by 0.8pts to 161.5 but full-time workers still have a significantly higher Consumer Confidence than part-time employees. Consumer Confidence for those in part-time employment increased by 1.9pts to 147.7.

It is Indonesians in White Collar and Professional/Managerial roles who have really driven the increase in Consumer Confidence over the last year. Consumer Confidence for Indonesians in White Collar employment increased by 4.2pts to 174.1 and those Indonesians working White Collar jobs are now nearly 10% more confident than the average Indonesians on this measure.

Indonesians in Professional/Managerial roles have also had a good year with Consumer Confidence for this group increasing 3.5pts to 162.6 and now comfortably above the national average.

However, not all employed Indonesians have grown more confidence over the last year. Indonesians working in Skilled/Unskilled jobs have seen Consumer Confidence barely move from a year ago, now at 155.2 compared to 155.5 in April 2018.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Employment & Occupation: April 2018 cf. April 2019


Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ April 2018 (n=2,137) & April 2019 (n=1,281).

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"In April Indonesian Consumer Confidence was down slightly on a month ago (-1.3pts) as Indonesians went to the polls to elect a President and a legislature. The final Roy Morgan Indonesian Poll of the election showed Jokowi receiving 54.5% of the vote compared to challenger Prabowo on 45.5% and although official results have not yet been released indicators are that President Jokowi has been re-elected by a margin of nearly 10% - mirroring the final Roy Morgan Poll result.

“The increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence over the last year has been built on those in White Collar or Professional/Managerial roles with both classes more confident than a year ago, whereas Indonesians working in Skilled/Unskilled jobs are little changed in terms of confidence.

"Indonesians in White Collar employment now have Consumer Confidence of an exceptionally high 174.1, up 4.2pts from a year ago while for those in Professional/Managerial roles it is 162.6, up 3.5pts. However, for workers in Skilled/Unskilled jobs Consumer Confidence is now 155.2, virtually unchanged on a year ago (155.5).

“In terms of employment status there have been modest increases in Consumer Confidence for Indonesians in full-time work, up 0.8pts to 161.5 and in part-time jobs, up 1.9pts to 147.7 but the biggest increase has been for Indonesians not in paid employment, up by 3pts to 160.7. This cohort of Indonesians includes those who are retired, on home duties as well as students.

“To get the most out of Roy Morgan’s in-depth research into the trends in the Indonesian economy and society subscribe to the Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source which is the largest consumer database in Indonesia covering more than 30 industries, 150 product categories and over 1,500 plus brands in the world’s fourth largest country.”



The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,281 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in April throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia May 11/12, 2019 – 114.8) and New Zealand (April 2019 – 123.2) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0