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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 117.6

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,013 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend July 6/7, 2019.

Confidence declined by 1.1% last week, with the decline following the prior week’s 4% gain. The performance of the sub-indices was mixed, with financial conditions up and the others down.

  • Current finances were up by 3.7% for the week, while future finances gained 1.3%.
  • In contrast, the economic conditions sub-indices were down; with current economic conditions falling 3.6% and future economic conditions losing 1.7%. The decline in these indices was not that disappointing when compared to the gains of 13.3% and 7% respectively in the previous reading.
  • The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ was down by 4.6%. The fourweek moving average for inflation expectations was up 0.1ppt to 4%.Financial conditions indices were mixed, with current finances down 2.2%, while future financial conditions rose 1.0%.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“Confidence fell 1.1%, despite the RBA’s second rate cut. The passage of the tax cuts has also not been an immediate boost to sentiment. We need to put this in context, however. Consumer confidence rose sharply in the prior week and is above average, so some consolidation is not completely unexpected. Interestingly, confidence also fell immediately following the June RBA rate cut, suggesting the immediate take-away from monetary easing is not necessarily positive. The mixed nature of last week’s data, with another trade surplus but soft retail sales, may also have contributed.”





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Related Research Reports

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You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2