MIAMI BOUND to win the 2020 MELBOURNE CUP at the delicious odds of 33/1

POINTS TO PONDER - MELBOURNE CUP 2020
By Hugh Wallace-Smith

Number 23 Miami Bound 33/1 is my very very clear selection to win the Cup

She looks a class above this field given her ridiculously easy win on a soft 7 in the Moonee Valley Cup last week [Group2],  and given her ridiculously easy 3 length  win on a good 4 in last year’s VRC Oaks at Flemington [Group 1] and her other strong Flemington victory in the Wakeful Stakes [Group 2] on a soft 6.

The current race record for Miami Bound (NZL) is 5 wins from 14 starts with prizemoney of $1,228,000.00.]

She has a great Cup pedigree being by the noted staying stallion Reliable Man out the 2007 VRC Oaks winner Arapaho Miss by Danehill Dancer out of the imported French mare Happy Heart.

She looks thrown into the race with a weight of only 51kg. Don’t worry about being a mare  In 2001 the 4 year old mare Ethereal won the Cup with 1 kg more having won the Queensland Oaks and the Caulfield Cup.   Of course the mare Makybe Diva won three in a row carrying 51 kg then 55 kg then 58 kg.

I think fresh air and scenery will run second. [No …..that is not a horse].

The horses to battle out the next 4 places will be,

NOT IN ORDER BUT FOR QUINELLAS FIRST 3 AND 4. I LIKE THESE  

No.2.  Avilius  50/1.

He looks outrageous value at 50/1. Tough mature stayer with a great run in the Caulfield Cup.Originally from United Kingdom trained by James Cummings, he is sired by the stallion Pivotal out of the dam Alessandria. Given that he has won at Group One level and has amassed $3,430,835 in career earnings, I regard Avilius as an elite class of racehorse.

16. Steel Prince 33/1.

He was heavily backed in the Geelong Cup and scored a good win which secured him a place in the Melbourne Cup. His run in the Cup last year had a lot of merit and he is going better this time in.In the past 18 years three Geelong Cup winners have won the Melbourne Cup and three other winners have run second. On that he could be 2/1 to run first or second. Instead he is 8/1 the place.

21. Tiger Moth 8/1.

You will remember a couple of years ago this author declared Cross Counter to win and he duly did the task. This took advantage of a Melbourne Cup weight loophole that beats the handicapper. Well the Irish may have done it again with this stallion as he has had only 4 starts and won a low grade Group  2 boat race amongst them. But he might be another Galileo champion in the making with only 52.5 kg weight.

12. Prince of Arran 11/1.

He was one of the eye catchers in the Caulfield Cup and heads into the Melbourne Cup in arguably his best form. He has placed twice in the Cup before and never puts in a bad run. He gets into the race pretty well in the weights and if he runs up to his best he will be right in the finish again. Drawn in barrier 1 he will get a sit just behind the speed and we know he runs a strong 3200m. He has been in every race except the Melbourne to Warnambool bike race but he has won a Geelong Cup, he ran second here last year and he ran a great race in the Caulfield Cup he has and has the rising champion jockey Jamie Kah. Big Danger.

The Tip - Miami Bound at 33/1.

Full Melbourne Cup Formguide.

Have a great day. xxx

Hugh Wallace-Smith