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Worldwide More Americans, British, Australians and New Zealanders Expect a Troubled Year

Australians, along with New Zealanders are the most likely to predict that 2003 will be a troubled year. 76% (up 23%) of Australians expect a troubled year in 2003, and only 2% expect a peaceful year. Sixty-eight percent (up 14%) of New Zealanders expect a troubled year in 2003. As do 60% (up 12%) of Americans and 64% (up 14%) of people from the United Kingdom. Just 8% of Americans, 5% of New Zealanders and 2% from the United Kingdom think that 2003 will be a peaceful year, according to the 2002 Gallup International Survey.

Kenyans are the least likely to expect a troubled year in 2003 (7% expect a troubled year and 54% expect a peaceful year). People living in Congo and Nigeria were the most likely to expect a peaceful year (55% each).

Next Year- Better or Worse Than This Year?

Despite expectations of a troubled year ahead, Americans, along with New Zealanders and Australians are among the most optimistic people on the planet with regard to the year 2003.

Kenyans are the most likely of 58 countries to think the year 2003 will be better than last year. Seventy-seven percent of Kenyans expect 2003 to be better than the previous year, compared with 64% of Americans, 63% of New Zealanders and 51% of Australians, also saying they expect 2003 to be better.

Other nations among the top ten most optimistic about 2003 were Kosovo (74%) and Nigeria (68%).

Only 9% (down 2%) of respondents from Japan expect a better year in 2003, making the Japanese the least likely to predict that 2003 would be better than the previous for the second consecutive year. Similarly, respondents from Austria also do not have high expectations for next year with only 12% (down 4%) expecting 2003 to be better than 2002.

Respondents from Zimbabwe (72%) and Portugal (65%) were the most likely to expect 2003 would be worse than last year. Respondents from Guatemala (57%), Ecuador (52%), Ireland (43%) and the Dominican Republic (43%) were also among the most likely to predict 2002, would be worse.

Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?

Importantly, when asked specifically about economic prosperity in the coming year, 29% of respondents (down 6%) from the United States predict that 2003 would be a year of economic prosperity, 46% the same, while 21% predict a year of economic difficulty, with 4% undecided. Similarly 26% of respondents from the United Kingdom predict a year of economic difficulty while 34% of Australians and only 17% of New Zealanders. In contrast in Germany, 67% expect economic difficulty, as do 46% of people living in Japan,

Respondents from Kenya (69%) and Nigeria (66%) were the most likely to expect economic prosperity in 2003. On the contrary, respondents from Uruguay and Ukraine (69% each) are the most likely to expect economic difficulty in 2003.

Respondents from Japan (only 2%) were the least likely to expect economic prosperity followed by Poland and Ireland (4%), who all numbered among the nations where more respondents expect economic difficulty than economic prosperity.

These findings come from a special International Gallup Survey on the year ahead. In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a nation-wide cross-section of 623 men and women aged 14 or over on December 4- 6, 2002 by telephone, while in New Zealand 921 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 21-23 and November 28-December 2, 2001.

Similar surveys were conducted in 58 countries by Gallup International affiliates.

Sample:

Roy Morgan International Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects should be made as appropriate.

Sample size 

Percentage estimate

 

25-75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

 ±41/2

 ±3

±2

Index

  1. Next Year - Better or Worse Than This Year
  2. Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?
  3. Next Year - Strikes and Industrial Disputes to Increase or Decrease
  4. Next Year Internationally a Peaceful or Troubled Year


1. Next Year - Better or Worse Than This Year

Respondents were first asked: "As far as you're concerned, do you think next year will be better or worse than this year?"

Kenya was the most optimistic country in 2002 (77%), followed by Kosovo (74%), Nigeria (68%), United States (64%) and New Zealand(63%).

The following table shows that of Australians interviewed by Roy Morgan International, 51% (down 2% since November 2001) expect the coming year to be better than 2002, while 33% (up 9%) expect a worse year and 16% (down 2%) expect it will be the same or can't say. In New Zealand 63% (down 2%) expect the coming year to be better than 2002, while 14% expect a worse year and 23% expect it will be the same or can't say.

 

Expected a better year in

 

Expect

a better

year in

Expect

a worse

year in

Expect

same /

Don't

know in

year in

 

'88

'89

'90

'91

'92

'93

'94

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

2003

2003

2003

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

                                     

Kenya

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

39

77

3

20

Kosovo

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

89

83

74

7

19

Nigeria

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

66

69

85

70

*

68

8

24

United States

56

61

49

48

61

61

64

*

45

51

54

*

62

50

52

64

17

19

New Zealand

*

*

56

41

33

58

59

61

62

*

*

62

56

62

65

63

14

23

Frymacedonia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

57

15

28

Denmark

26

28

33

41

46

29

46

51

53

51

47

43

39

45

53

54

7

39

Panama

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

65

51

*

53

30

17

Australia:

                                   

Now

                             

51

33

16

1 Year ago

                             

53

26

21

2 Years ago

                             

46

21

33

3 Years ago

                             

49

21

30

4 Years ago

                             

55

20

25

5 Years ago

                             

50

22

28

6 Years ago

                             

*

*

*

7 Years ago

                             

53

18

29

8 Years ago

                             

65

16

19

9 Years ago

                             

60

18

22

10 Years ago

                             

42

36

19

11 Years ago

                             

54

26

20

12 Years ago

                             

33

49

18

13 Years ago

                             

43

35

22

14 Years ago

                             

47

31

22

15 Years ago

                             

39

40

21

16 Years ago

                             

36

41

23

17 Years ago

                             

52

24

24

18 Years ago

                             

57

18

25

Sweden

48

47

44

40

41

20

45

35

35

38

49

46

54

49

49

51

18

31

India

*

*

*

34

31

43

46

50

46

37

43

28

34

46

34

51

25

24

Iceland

35

31

39

38

33

32

43

55

43

41

46

39

47

45

43

47

9

44

Latvia

*

*

*

*

25

24

17

34

25

21

27

31

37

30

54

47

11

42

Pakistan

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

34

42

*

41

47

59

37

43

47

12

41

Georgia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

38

52

60

55

*

60

37

29

46

17

37

Congo

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

45

16

39

Estonia

*

*

*

*

20

20

36

49

42

43

*

41

50

58

42

44

9

47

Malaysia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

59

70

55

46

44

15

41

Cameroon

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

42

43

22

35

Uganda

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

42

27

31

United Kingdom·

49

46

36

43

45

33

35

*

47

53

52

42

32

36

41

41

18

41

Peru

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

23

41

46

44

37

14

49

France

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

30

47

45

37

20

43

Spain

35

38

38

25

36

12

25

35

35

27

43

48

38

45

43

37

24

39

Lithuania

*

*

*

*

29

32

22

28

25

27

42

31

19

*

22

35

21

44

Romania

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

31

34

61

31

16

17

44

27

35

23

42

Dominican Rep.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

53

50

*

35

43

22

Finland

24

25

27

12

21

21

33

49

46

39

41

27

29

29

21

33

10

57

Korea

58

62

56

43

39

35

45

47

49

27

16

24

32

17

25

33

30

37

Serbia †

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

33

*

38

65

46

32

26

42

Hong Kong

*

*

46

31

48

41

42

38

24

42

29

34

60

53

30

32

37

31

Tanzania

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

31

12

57

Russia+

22

54

37

18

21

29

29

20

27

27

41

15

27

33

52

31

19

50

Switzerland

37

43

33

26

23

20

27

31

30

29

35

34

33

38

27

31

20

49

Luxembourg

32

40

45

40

19

16

28

31

36

32

29

33

33

40

42

31

31

38

Czech Rep.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

27

31

22

18

20

27

31

29

30

24

46

Croatia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

45

30

-

45

27

30

27

43

Greece

32

39

47

34

24

28

42

34

22

22

29

24

47

32

40

30

43

27

South Africa

*

*

42

43

35

32

54

59

58

51

43

43

36

28

29

29

38

33

Uruguay

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

35

*

57

35

34

29

40

31

Bosnia/ Herz

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

44

45

41

38

47

27

27

29

44

Italy

42

48

59

43

46

31

39

48

47

39

45

45

44

43

37

27

32

42

Mexico

14

32

47

42

41

42

60

54

35

42

*

33

52

62

39

27

34

39

Belgium

24

28

31

20

25

15

19

42

24

39

46

39

34

31

31

24

27

49

Slovak Rep.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

14

26

18

22

20

19

26

22

24

34

43

Germany#

27

29

22

25

20

12

27

37

41

35

34

46

44

44

36

22

34

44

Netherlands

25

33

37

31

28

23

28

17

15

18

25

27

25

13

15

21

33

46

Ukraine

*

*

*

*

*

*

15

17

21

28

20

25

31

25

30

20

20

60

Philippines

33

47

29

22

38

47

48

47

28

36

31

36

24

28

29

17

35

48

Ireland

22

48

54

45

44

33

42

52

47

48

59

48

45

39

21

17

43

40

Bulgaria

*

*

*

*

44

40

43

44

46

24

37

29

25

20

22

15

26

59

Poland

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

26

30

33

27

31

16

24

14

15

41

44

Guatemala

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

15

57

28

Portugal

51

44

31

30

37

24

18

21

41

*

24

23

-

26

31

15

65

20

Zimbabwe

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

18

24

16

*

9

-

17

14

15

72

13

Ecuador

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

29

11

32

20

14

52

34

Austria

22

22

23

22

19

14

17

23

14

13

16

23

12

15

16

12

18

70

Japan

24

27

24

23

21

24

17

22

21

21

16

18

20

17

11

9

32

59

*Not surveyed.

+ U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992

# West Germany surveyed until 1989 and United Germany surveyed since 1990.

† Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 and 2002

· excluding Northern Ireland

2. Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?

Respondents were then asked: "Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty, or about the same?"

The country expecting the highest economic prosperity is in 2001 is Kenya (69%), followed by Nigeria (66%), the Kosovo (56%) and Malaysia (45%).

Australia (11%, down 3% since 2001) ranked 41st on this issue, while New Zealand (24%, down 2%) ranked 17th.

 

Expect economic

prosperity in


2002

Expect

economic

prosperity

in


2003

Expect

economic

difficulty

in


2003

Expect

same /

Don't

know in


2003

 

%

%

%

%

         

Kenya

24

69

6

25

Nigeria

*

66

8

26

Kosovo

64

56

14

30

Malaysia

38

45

17

38

Congo

*

41

23

36

Panama

*

38

30

32

Pakistan

39

37

13

50

India

23

37

34

29

Latvia

36

36

13

51

Frymacedonia

*

35

30

35

Sweden

32

34

20

46

Georgia

27

33

17

50

Dominican Rep

*

33

37

30

Uganda

*

29

34

37

United States

35

29

21

50

Spain

20

28

35

37

Tanzania

*

27

22

51

New Zealand

26

24

17

59

Romania

19

24

28

48

South Africa

22

23

38

39

Russia+

23

22

25

53

Cameroon

36

22

34

44

Korea

21

22

57

21

Serbia †

29

20

37

43

Bosnia/ Herz

15

19

34

47

Denmark

18

18

16

66

Peru

29

18

22

60

Czech Republic

14

18

31

51

Croatia

19

18

33

49

Iceland

12

17

19

64

France

15

17

30

53

Mexico

16

17

37

46

Slovak Republic

15

17

41

42

Switzerland

*

16

51

32

Uruguay

23

16

69

15

Luxembourg

19

14

45

41

Lithuania

6

13

25

62

Zimbabwe

10

13

68

19

United Kingdom·

13

12

26

62

Philippines

21

12

41

47

Australia

       

Now

 

11

34

55

1 Year ago

 

14

32

54

2 Years ago

 

11

25

64

3 Years ago

 

18

28

54

4 Years ago

 

15

29

56

5 Years ago

 

15

20

65

6 Years ago

 

*

*

*

7 Years ago

 

13

21

66

8 Years ago

 

23

19

58

9 Years ago

 

16

19

65

10 Years ago

 

7

35

58

11 Years ago

 

10

33

57

12 Years ago

 

5

56

39

13 Years ago

 

8

44

48

14 Years ago

 

12

32

56

15 Years ago

 

7

51

42

16 Years ago

 

6

39

55

Italy

19

11

42

47

Netherlands

5

11

46

43

Belgium

*

11

49

40

Finland

6

10

16

74

Hong Kong

9

9

36

55

Ecuador

18

9

62

29

Estonia

10

8

21

71

Austria

8

8

28

64

Guatemala

*

8

50

42

Bulgaria

14

7

36

57

Greece

13

7

58

35

Portugal

*

7

69

24

Ukraine

11

6

24

70

Poland

3

4

46

50

Ireland

7

4

57

39

Germany#

10

4

67

29

Japan

4

2

46

52

*Not surveyed.

+ U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992

# West Germany surveyed until 1989 and United Germany surveyed since 1990.

· excluding Northern Ireland

† Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 and 2002

3. Next Year - Strikes and Industrial Disputes to Increase or Decrease

Respondents were then asked: "As far as you are concerned, do you think that in 2003, strikes and industrial disputes in this country will increase, decrease, or remain the same?"

Guatemala tops the list with 66% expecting more strikes and industrial disputes, followed by Portugal (63%), Germany (62%) and Korea (59%).

Australia ranks 25th with 40% (down 6% since last year) expecting industrial disputes and strikes to increase in 2002. New Zealand ranks 19th with 43% (down 8% since last year) expecting industrial disputes and strikes to increase in 2002.

 

Expected increase in

strikes and industrial disputes

Expect

increase

in

Expect

decrease

in

Expect

same /

Don't

know

 

'88

'89

'90

'91

'92

'93

'94

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

2003

2003

2003

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

                                     

Guatemala

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

66

5

29

Portugal

19

23

27

31

26

48

60

38

19

*

38

40

*

44

51

63

8

29

Germany#

34

27

36

46

50

52

68

54

53

78

51

37

43

36

49

62

5

33

Korea

19

29

38

31

23

20

15

21

53

33

21

28

29

65

45

59

17

24

France

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

60

47

47

57

32

11

Switzerland

39

30

37

54

51

65

59

46

52

64

47

39

39

31

52

56

4

40

Italy

43

39

37

51

47

60

55

53

45

53

31

42

39

40

10

56

4

40

India

*

*

*

47

47

42

34

43

31

35

30

42

38

44

38

55

14

31

Ireland (Eire)

33

23

17

23

33

32

35

21

25

33

15

36

37

51

33

54

3

43

United Kingdom·

23

34

47

24

17

37

29

*

32

30

23

28

7

40

21

54

3

43

Netherlands

49

48

32

44

59

63

52

40

40

33

38

37

32

42

39

52

2

46

Belgium

32

20

36

40

39

55

56

48

60

51

45

49

39

45

51

49

6

45

Ecuador

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

46

59

49

*

49

8

43

Zimbabwe

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

57

43

68

*

63

*

67

55

49

14

37

Uruguay

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

41

*

28

46

25

47

11

42

Philippines

34

38

54

63

36

33

38

35

22

34

54

44

58

46

53

46

8

46

Hong Kong

*

*

39

48

40

33

36

37

60

27

31

41

28

38

48

45

9

46

Bosnia/Herz.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

36

31

29

35

31

48

44

10

46

New Zealand

*

*

36

36

39

40

18

31

33

*

*

31

25

38

51

43

7

50

Panama

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

35

44

*

43

8

49

Mexico

12

7

43

47

48

58

49

45

59

50

*

57

46

24

43

43

9

48

Peru

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

47

35

28

50

42

7

51

Dominican Rep.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

10

38

*

42

12

46

Serbia †

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

33

*

38

25

48

41

12

47

Australia

                                   

Now

                             

40

4

56

1 Year ago

                             

46

6

48

2 Years ago

                             

35

9

66

3 Years ago

                             

43

8

49

4 Years ago

                             

33

14

53

5 Years ago

                             

43

6

51

6 Years ago

                             

*

*

*

7 Years ago

                             

43

9

48

8 Years ago

                             

43

9

48

9 Years ago

                             

27

13

60

10 Years ago

                             

57

11

32

11 Years ago

                             

32

19

49

12 Years ago

                             

44

11

45

13 Years ago

                             

36

17

47

14 Years ago

                             

33

12

55

15 Years ago

                             

36

11

53

16 Years ago

                             

37

12

51

17 Years ago

                             

44

11

55

18 Years ago

                             

32

10

58

Greece

39

30

23

41

53

48

18

36

52

43

48

47

42

42

46

40

6

54

South Africa

*

*

39

32

35

45

21

29

27

28

33

31

33

33

35

39

13

48

Luxembourg

30

16

24

22

31

39

42

33

51

52

31

24

43

41

30

38

4

58

Poland

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

40

38

36

29

36

53

48

48

36

8

56

Ukraine

*

*

*

*

*

53

53

34

39

41

42

49

23

41

23

34

20

46

Cameroon

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

27

33

19

48

Kosovo

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

18

24

33

30

37

Bulgaria

*

*

*

*

42

43

47

31

29

42

17

22

26

29

31

32

3

65

Georgia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

50

13

18

27

*

27

46

41

32

13

55

Romania

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

23

29

18

41

62

51

21

57

32

14

54

Frymacedonia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

31

29

40

Congo

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

29

34

37

United States

29

29

35

38

42

32

38

*

28

39

34

*

26

30

48

28

12

59

Czech Rep

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

38

43

41

38

35

40

27

30

27

10

63

Estonia

*

*

*

*

42

60

29

22

28

35

*

28

28

28

43

27

11

62

Slovak Rep.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

49

44

50

23

24

35

29

30

27

16

57

Spain

31

35

32

40

45

63

57

31

34

49

19

23

24

45

37

26

17

57

Denmark

32

40

31

35

24

32

23

27

29

36

16

30

26

15

28

26

60

14

Lithuania

*

*

*

*

42

30

42

42

33

28

22

38

55

*

42

25

10

65

Tanzania

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

25

15

60

Pakistan

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

29

20

21

40

28

25

30

45

Sweden

28

25

32

32

37

47

26

20

31

41

18

15

22

21

23

24

2

74

Latvia

*

*

*

*

32

41

34

28

36

48

30

25

32

18

24

24

11

65

Uganda

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

24

25

51

Russia+

*

*

41

53

56

33

35

47

39

51

29

44

22

26

16

23

11

66

Iceland

51

60

36

28

60

50

25

53

50

59

19

20

48

46

23

20

16

64

Austria

46

19

22

15

29

29

41

24

30

51

32

27

19

24

32

17

10

73

Finland

32

24

46

38

33

35

29

50

19

23

25

22

41

21

20

16

6

78

Nigeria

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

19

13

9

16

*

16

46

38

Malaysia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

22

16

22

13

15

17

68

Japan

14

10

8

15

21

27

30

15

14

16

20

18

15

11

17

13

15

72

Croatia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

31

54

*

41

41

10

38

52

Kenya

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

56

10

55

35

*Not surveyed.

# West Germany surveyed until 1989 and United Germany surveyed since 1990.

+ U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992

· excluding Northern Ireland

† Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 and 2002

4. Next Year Internationally a Peaceful or Troubled Year

Respondents were finally asked: "Do you think that 2002 will be a peaceful year more or less free of international dispute, a troubled year with much international discord, or remain the same?"

Most likely to expect a troubled year is Australia (76%) followed by New Zealand, Germany and Uruguay (68%).

In Australia, 76% (up 23%) believe 2002 will be a troubled year, 2% (down 8%) expect a more peaceful year than 2001. In New Zealand 68% expect a troubled year in 2002, while 5% expect the coming year to be more peaceful.

 

Expected a troubled year in

Expect

a

troubled

year in

Expect

a

peaceful

year in

Expect

same /

Don't

know

in

 

'89

'90

'91

'92

'93

'94

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00

'01

'02

2003

2003

2003

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

                                   

Australia

                                 

Now

                           

76

2

22

1 Year ago

                           

53

10

37

2 Years ago

                           

39

8

53

3 Year ago

                           

40

10

50

4 Years ago

                           

43

10

47

5 Years ago

                           

35

7

58

6 Years ago

                           

*

*

*

7 Years ago

                           

28

12

60

8 Years ago

                           

29

12

59

9 Years ago

                           

29

13

58

10 Years ago

                           

41

10

49

11 Years ago

                           

33

14

53

12 Years ago

                           

61

6

33

13 Years ago

                           

28

20

52

14 Years ago

                           

23

18

59

15 Years ago

                           

46

9

45

16 Years ago

                           

34

8

58

17 Years ago

                           

41

9

50

18 Years ago

                           

49

7

44

Uruguay

27

30

35

38

51

25

*

*

*

39

*

35

34

55

68

4

28

Germany#

17

25

43

50

57

56

45

28

42

39

36

39

28

61

68

4

28

New Zealand

*

22

50

30

41

43

28

24

*

*

49

35

27

54

68

5

27

United Kingdom·

28

26

67

30

62

44

*

27

34

17

32

31

50

50

64

2

34

Luxembourg

26

37

41

47

60

48

47

36

46

47

40

48

42

58

62

5

33

Korea

19

28

33

34

33

32

41

37

*

37

34

36

40

42

62

15

23

Denmark

29

31

57

57

69

58

58

31

31

38

35

49

36

57

60

4

36

United States

19

26

46

31

32

35

*

31

*

46

*

28

34

48

60

8

32

Italy

20

20

40

30

44

17

42

33

37

33

34

29

38

54

59

4

37

Sweden

10

16

36

30

45

28

31

15

21

16

25

25

25

45

59

5

36

Belgium

22

33

54

46

54

45

50

34

37

35

36

27

39

58

59

5

36

Switzerland

25

27

43

51

50

51

51

46

38

48

46

47

43

56

58

8

34

Spain

21

28

45

38

51

40

31

32

42

29

35

32

39

61

57

12

31

Netherlands

25

30

66

57

58

54

42

19

25

26

31

26

24

40

56

2

42

Guatemala

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

55

5

40

Hong Kong

*

34

40

23

34

33

28

34

*

14

19

15

23

48

54

6

40

Panama

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

34

35

*

53

18

29

India

*

*

51

44

42

30

30

24

*

25

42

38

19

51

52

17

31

Iceland

8

6

32

21

13

29

28

23

*

18

6

9

22

35

50

3

47

Portugal

19

17

45

49

48

47

32

21

*

29

26

*

41

44

50

13

37

Zimbabwe

*

*

*

*

*

*

38

33

*

*

63

*

64

62

50

14

36

Estonia

*

*

*

42

34

23

21

27

27

*

35

36

36

43

48

8

44

Ireland

25

18

44

21

35

44

41

20

28

18

18

17

27

43

47

3

50

Uganda

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

43

18

39

Finland

10

20

57

52

40

31

36

17

20

18

19

25

21

43

42

2

56

Dominican Rep

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

19

20

*

42

23

35

Poland

*

*

*

49

27

*

37

37

37

13

18

27

14

42

41

4

55

Serbia †

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

34

*

41

32

40

41

9

50

Russia+

16

11

16

34

33

29

35

33

35

21

34

39

33

54

40

10

50

Bulgaria

*

*

*

39

40

26

23

13

21

15

17

24

22

38

38

6

56

Croatia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

24

38

*

25

32

38

10

52

Ecuador

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

36

42

34

30

38

11

51

Czech. Rep

*

*

*

*

50

*

25

23

22

18

25

28

21

40

36

5

58

Ukraine

*

*

*

*

*

50

27

31

25

27

34

28

30

37

36

10

54

Bosnia/Herz.

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

37

26

28

24

18

41

35

12

53

Lithuania

*

*

*

36

32

28

36

35

26

17

29

45

*

55

34

15

51

Philippines

37

29

53

30

15

17

18

10

*

38

27

47

37

44

33

12

55

Slovak Rep

*

*

*

*

42

*

33

31

34

31

25

26

25

40

32

14

54

Latvia

*

*

*

35

32

17

29

19

24

17

20

20

17

39

32

15

53

Greece

25

20

43

49

56

36

39

46

40

38

41

30

38

48

32

27

41

South Africa

**

28

27

30

43

25

14

16

*

20

24

23

30

36

31

15

54

Mexico

41

42

50

43

48

40

49

58

*

*

27

33

28

58

30

19

51

Japan

18

22

43

35

37

36

37

34

*

34

32

31

12

26

30

33

37

Peru

25

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

29

18

26

39

27

9

64

Malaysia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

17

15

18

27

27

20

53

Austria

22

31

34

47

47

42

33

36

44

26

49

27

26

64

27

24

49

Romania

*

*

*

*

*

*

26

16

18

23

31

26

14

42

27

27

46

Cameroon

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

36

26

28

46

France

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

20

54

43

24

10

66

Pakistan

*

*

*

*

*

*

20

39

*

30

20

18

25

40

24

23

53

Frymacedonia

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

23

22

55

Georgia

*

*

*

*

28

*

39

25

26

27

*

31

31

16

20

18

62

Tanzania

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

18

18

64

Kosovo

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

15

16

17

42

41

Nigeria

*

*

*

*

*

10

*

*

*

8

3

4

5

*

10

55

35

Congo

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

10

55

35

Kenya

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

58

7

54

39

*Not surveyed.

± USA questionnaire asked: "… do you think 2002 will have more international disputes, less international disputes, or the same?". First column is "less disputes".

+ U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992

# West Germany surveyed until 1989 and United Germany surveyed since 1990.

· excluding Northern Ireland

† Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 and 2002

Australia 

Gary Morgan or Michele Levine 

Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309

askroymorgan@roymorgan.com