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Australians believe Roy Morgan Unemployment is more accurate than the ABS

The SMS Morgan Poll was conducted last Tuesday (July 2, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,568 Australians aged 18+.

The June Roy Morgan unemployment number (9.7%, up 0.2%) released on Monday is far higher than the ABS June unemployment number (5.7%, up 0.2% from May) released today. When Australians are asked which figure they believe is ‘closer to reality’, a clear majority of Australians (58%), say the Roy Morgan estimate is ‘closer to reality’, only 20.5% say the ABS figure is ‘closer to reality’ and a further 21.5% can’t say.

Analysis by Gender & Age

Analysis by Gender shows Women (60.5%) are more likely than Men (55%) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’. More Men (26%) than Women (15.5%) say the ABS unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’.

Analysis by Age groups shows young people more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures (not surprising given unemployment is higher amongst younger Australians) - 60.5% of 18-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’, 58.5% of 35-49yr olds, 58% of 50-64yr olds, 57% of 65+yr olds and 55% of 25-34yr olds.

Analysis by Voting Intention

Analysis by Voting intention shows a clear difference between supporters of the two major parties with Liberal supporters (68%) and National supporters (73%) far more likely to believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’ than ALP supporters (44.5%) or Greens supporters (43.5%) – of note, across all party supporters – more believe the Roy Morgan figure than the ABS.

Gary Morgan says:

It’s understandable that the Government of the day (Rudd Labor Government) uses the old, established 1950s European method for the ‘ABS unemployment estimate’ so they can ‘claim’ that the Australian economy is travelling well because of low unemployment.

“However, it is incomprehensible that the Opposition – Abbott/Hockey and his ‘financial experts’ ignore the truth on unemployment. Marcus L’Estrange in Letters, Australian Financial Review, Thursday 11 July 2013, says it all: ‘Rates not based on real unemployment figures’.

Roy Morgan qualitative research released this week shows clearly that L-NP supporters are currently voting that way for economic reasons – believing the L-NP are better economic managers and that the ALP haven’t managed the economy wisely as well. Electors do not believe the economy is travelling well, and the latest Roy Morgan research shows they also don’t believe the ABS low unemployment results.

“The results from our special SMS Morgan Poll show that Liberal (68%) and National (73%) supporters are far more likely to believe the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (In June 1,205,000 Australians were unemployed and 1,141,000 under-employed) is ‘closer to reality’ than the ABS unemployment estimate.

“For the L-NP to ignore this suggests they are not in tune with the electorate or even their own supporters. It is no wonder that the ALP vote quickly swung around once Rudd and his colleagues replaced those from the ALP Government who were unsympathetic to business, and redirected the Government’s focus onto the economy by challenging Abbott to debate.

“The results of the SMS Morgan Poll show Australians feel the official ABS unemployment rate understates the level of real unemployment in Australia and that despite the RBA’s decision last week to leave Australian interest rates unchanged at 2.75%, further stimulation of the Australian economy is required to help ensure the 2.35 million Australians who are either unemployed or underemployed have the best chance of gainful employment.

“Concerns regarding the truth of the ABS underestimation of unemployment were brought home to a wider audience this morning by economist Ross Greenwood on the Channel 9 Today show.”

The SMS Morgan Poll was conducted last Tuesday (July 2, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,568 Australians aged 18+.

Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in May was 5.5%. The Roy Morgan estimate was 9.5%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?”

 

 

SMS Morgan Poll

 

 

Gender

Age

 

Total

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

ABS

20.5

26

15.5

22.5

24

20

18.5

21

Roy Morgan

58

55

60.5

60.5

55

58.5

58

57

Can’t say

21.5

19

24

17

21

21.5

23.5

22

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

SMS Morgan Poll

 

 

Voting Intention

 

Total

ALP

Liberal

National

Greens

Ind./Other

Can’t say

ABS

20.5

31.5

14.5

16

23

22

2.5

Roy Morgan

58

44.5

68

73

43.5

58.5

62

Can’t say

21.5

24

17.5

11

33.5

19.5

35.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


 

SMS Morgan Poll

 

 

State

 

Total

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

ABS

20.5

20

22.5

13.5

29

16.5

21

Roy Morgan

58

57

59

65.5

53

54.5

61.5

Can’t say

21.5

23

18.5

21

18

29

17.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

For further information: 

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093



Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2013)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2013)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2013)


Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimate - June 2013


Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimate - June Quarter 2013


Roy Morgan Under-employment Estimate - June 2013


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.