This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Tuesday September 15 – Thursday September 17, 2020.
In Victoria support for the ALP is now at 51.5% compared to the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to a special Roy Morgan SMS survey on Victorian voting intention with a cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ over the last few days.
The two-party preferred support for the ALP has dropped a significant 5.8% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election while L-NP support is up 5.8% points.
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention shows that if a Victorian Election were held today the ALP would be returned with a narrow majority for a third term of Government.
Primary Vote for ALP plunges since 2018 State Election
Primary support for the ALP is now at 37%, down 5.9% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election and now behind the L-NP on 38.5% (up 3.3% points).
Support for the Greens is up slightly to 12% (up 1.3% points) while support for Other Parties has increased to 8.5% (up 3.4% points). A further 4% of Victorians are now supporting Independent candidates, down 2.1% points from the 2018 Victorian State Election.
Two-Party Preferred support splits by Region & Gender
Two clear splits have emerged in Victoria with city-dwellers in Melbourne and women supporting the ALP on a two-party preferred basis while Country Victorians and men are more likely to support the L-NP.
Women clearly favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support at 57% compared to only 43% for the L-NP. In contrast a majority of 53.5% of men support the L-NP compared to 46.5% supporting the ALP.
Melburnians (who comprise the bulk of the population of Victoria) favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support of 53.5% compared to 46.5% for the L-NP while in Country Victoria support for the L-NP is at 55% compared to only 45% for the ALP.
This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Tuesday September 15 – Thursday September 17, 2020.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the ALP would still be the favourite if a Victorian State Election were held today although support for the L-NP has risen substantially since 2018:
“The Second Wave of COVID-19 in Victoria has led to a tightening between the two major parties with the ALP on 51.5% only narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-September.
“ALP support has dropped substantially since the 2018 Victorian State Election with primary support down nearly 6% points to 37%. This support has flowed to several parties including the Opposition L-NP, up 3.3% points to 38.5%, the Greens, up 1.3% points to 12% and Other Parties up 3.4% points to 8.5%.
“However, the big split that has emerged is between the genders and between Melbourne and Country Victoria. The ALP retains big leads amongst women (57% cf. 43%) and in Melbourne (53.5% cf. 46.5%), but the L-NP is now well ahead with men (53.5% cf. 46.5%) and in Country Victoria (55% cf. 45%).
“As Victoria (hopefully) emerges from the Second Wave of COVID-19 in the next couple of months the big issues will revolve around supporting businesses and re-booting the Victorian economy and providing jobs for the hundreds of thousands of Victorians now looking for new work.
“The next two years presents a huge test for the ALP to rebuild it’s credibility after the devastating impact of the second wave of COVID-19 following mis-steps in the Victorian hotel quarantine program for returned travellers and inadequate contact tracing and testing in Victoria compared to its counterpart in New South Wales.”
Victorian electors were asked: "If a State Election for Victoria were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?"
For further comment or more information contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
Victorian Primary Voting Intention. By Gender & Region
|
|
Victorians 18+
|
Gender
|
Region
|
| |
2018 Victorian
Election
|
Sep 15-17,
2020
|
Women
|
Men
|
Melbourne
|
Country
Areas
|
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
42.9
|
37
|
40.5
|
33.5
|
39
|
29.5
|
|
Liberal
|
30.4
|
35
|
31
|
38.5
|
36
|
31.5
|
|
National
|
4.8
|
3.5
|
3
|
4.5
|
0.5
|
13.5
|
|
L-NP
|
35.2
|
38.5
|
34
|
43
|
36.5
|
45
|
|
Greens
|
10.7
|
12
|
15.5
|
8.5
|
11.5
|
13
|
|
Others
|
5.1
|
8.5
|
6.5
|
10.5
|
9
|
8
|
|
Independents
|
6.1
|
4
|
3.5
|
4.5
|
4
|
4.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention. By Gender & Region
|
|
Victorians 18+
|
Gender
|
Region
|
| |
2018 Victorian
Election
|
Sep 15-17,
2020
|
Women
|
Men
|
Melbourne
|
Country
Areas
|
|
2PP
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
ALP
|
57.3
|
51.5
|
57
|
46.5
|
53.5
|
45
|
|
L-NP
|
42.7
|
48.5
|
43
|
53.5
|
46.5
|
55
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com