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New Zealanders say the DPRK will use a nuclear weapon

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in late September with a cross-section of 1,888 New Zealanders aged 18+.

A special Roy Morgan SMS Survey taken in late September, after the New Zealand Election, shows a majority (58%) of New Zealanders saying it is either ‘Very likely’ (19%) or ‘Fairly likely’ (39%) that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 42% that say it is ‘Fairly unlikely’ (31%) or ‘Very unlikely’ (11%).

These figures are a reverse of the Australian result surveyed in mid-September which showed 51% of Australians believe it is ‘Fairly/Very unlikely’ North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 49% of Australians that say it is ‘Fairly/Very likely’.

The majority of New Zealanders (78%) want the opposing sides in the North Korean stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution, a similar result to Australia, and only 22% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution isn’t working and a military one is needed.

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in late September with a cross-section of 1,888 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Questions: “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”


Analysis by Voting Preference: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysing the results by voting preference shows a majority of supporters of the major parties National, Labour and New Zealand First think it likely North Korea will use a nuclear weapon whereas a slight majority of Greens supporters think it is unlikely.

Total
NZ

Electors

Labour

National

NZ First

Greens

Other

Can’t say

Non
Electors

Total

Australia

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Very likely

19

19

28

15

16

15

12

30

15

16

Fairly likely

39

38

31

45

44

31

35

46

30

33

Total likely

58

57

59

60

60

46

47

76

45

49

Fairly unlikely

31

33

32

31

22

41

36

21

36

33

Very unlikely

11

10

9

9

18

13

17

3

19

18

Total unlikely

42

43

41

40

40

54

53

24

55

51

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

As expected large majorities of supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a military solution.

Total

NZ

Electors

Labour

National

NZ First

Greens

Other

Can’t say

Non electors

Total

Australia

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Peaceful

78

78

80

75

74

89

63

85

79

81

Military

22

22

20

25

26

11

37

15

21

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Gender & Age: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysis by gender shows women and men differ on the tense situation with women much more concerned than men when considering the likelihood that North Korea might use nuclear weapons than not whilst it is those aged 35-64 who are most certain North Korea will use a nuclear weapon with older and younger New Zealanders more evenly split on the question.

Total

NZ

Gender

Age

Total

Australia

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Very likely

19

12

25

14

14

23

24

16

16

Fairly likely

39

30

43

38

42

40

38

37

33

Total likely

58

42

68

52

56

63

62

53

49

Fairly unlikely

31

38

29

38

33

28

28

33

33

Very unlikely

11

20

3

10

11

9

10

14

18

Total unlikely

42

58

32

48

44

37

38

47

51

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

Large majorities of both genders and all ages are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a military solution although it is the youngest New Zealanders, those aged 18-24, who are most pre-disposed to a potential military solution (32%).

Total

NZ

Gender

Age

Total

Australia

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Peaceful

78

74

81

68

82

78

76

82

81

Military

22

26

19

32

18

22

24

18

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Regions: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysing the results by region it is outside New Zealand’s two largest cities that respondents are most convinced North Korea will use a nuclear weapon – highest on the North Island outside Auckland and Wellington, and highest outside Canterbury on the South Island.

Respondents in Auckland and Wellington are split almost right down the middle on the question.

 

Region

 

Total

NZ

Auckland

Wellington

Other

North Island

Canterbury

Other

South Island

Total

Australia

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Very likely

19

17

15

20

23

20

16

Fairly likely

39

35

35

40

34

39

33

Total likely

58

52

50

60

57

59

49

Fairly unlikely

31

37

37

29

31

32

33

Very unlikely

11

11

13

11

12

9

18

Total unlikely

42

48

50

40

43

41

51

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

At least three quarters of respondents in each region believe a peaceful diplomatic solution must be pursued compared to less than a quarter of respondents that would prefer a military solution.

 

Region

 

Total

NZ

Auckland

Wellington

Other

North Island

Canterbury

Other

South Island

Total

Australia

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Peaceful

78

78

87

76

75

77

81

Military

22

22

13

24

25

23

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“A majority of New Zealanders (58%) say North Korea is either ‘Very likely’ (19%) or ‘Fairly likely’ (39%) to use a nuclear weapon – a higher result than for their counterparts across the Tasman in Australia – a total of 49% saying it is either ‘Fairly or Very likely’.

“In addition, over three-quarters of New Zealanders (78%) are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution to the stand-off rather than a military solution despite the heated rhetoric being traded primarily by the North Korean government and US President Donald J. Trump. There are concerns that North Korea is set to conduct further missile tests next week (October 18) to mark the start of China’s 19th Communist Party Congress.

“As New Zealand First gets set to choose who will form New Zealand’s next Government we can report that supporters of the major parties National and Labour are in close agreement on the questions with 60% of National supporters and 59% of Labour supporters saying it is likely North Korea will use a nuclear weapon and 75% of National supporters and 80% of Labour supporters wanting a peaceful diplomatic solution to the stand-off rather than a military solution.”


Finding No. 7346 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 951 New Zealanders on September 27/28, 2017. They
were asked “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”

Roy Morgan SMS Polling was extremely accurate at both the last two Federal Elections.

Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au


For further information:

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