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New Zealanders far more optimistic about 2018 than their Australian counterparts

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.
A special Roy Morgan New Zealand SMS Survey taken in mid-November shows 53% of New Zealanders think 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, compared to only 26% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ and a further 21% expect 2018 will be ‘the same’ as 2017.

Although the 53% of New Zealanders saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 is lower than the last time this survey was conducted in 2009 when a record high 73% of New Zealanders expected a ‘better’ year following a sharp recession in NZ, New Zealanders are far more optimistic about 2018 than their Australian counterparts. Only 31% of Australians expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017. See here for more details on the Australian results.

Driving the positive result are supporters of new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour-NZ First-Greens Government she leads. 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of NZ First supporters and an even higher 82% of Greens supporters expect 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 30% of National supporters – further details below.

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.


Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)

Roy Morgan New Zealand - Next Year 'Better' or 'Worse' - November 2017Source: Roy Morgan telephone & SMS surveys in New Zealand 1989-2017 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”


Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)

“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995*

1996*

1997*

1998

1999

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

56

41

33

46

46

61

n/a

n/a

n/a

62

56

Same

16

17

29

34

42

27

n/a

n/a

n/a

22

34

Worse

28

42

38

20

12

12

n/a

n/a

n/a

16

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*This survey wasn’t conducted between 1995-1997.

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2017

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

62

65

63

59

60

59

65

57

44

73

53

Same

32

24

23

27

27

22

22

24

16

12

21

Worse

6

11

14

14

13

19

13

19

40

15

26

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan New Zealand - Next Year 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by Age & Gender - November 2017Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.

In contrast to Australia, it is women in New Zealand who are more optimistic than men with 58% of women expecting a ‘better’ 2018 than 2017 compared to 48% of men.

Analysing the results by age shows those aged under 50 are all very confident about 2018 including 58% of 18-24yr olds, 56% of 25-34yr olds and 57% of 35-49yr olds that expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 51% of 50-64yr olds and 45% of those aged 65+.

Total
NZ

Gender

Age

Total
Australia

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

53

48

58

58

56

57

51

45

31

Same

21

22

20

21

22

18

21

26

39

Worse

26

30

22

21

22

25

28

29

30

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Region – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan New Zealand - Next Year 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by Region - November 2017Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Analysing by region shows little difference across New Zealand with slight majorities in each region saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 and around a quarter of respondents in each region saying 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017.

Nevertheless, New Zealand’s most optimistic region is New Zealand’s biggest city of Auckland in which 55% of respondents say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 followed by 54% of respondents in Canterbury and 53% of respondents in the capital Wellington.

 

Region

 

Total
NZ

Auckland

Wellington

Other
North Island

Canterbury

Other
South Island

Total
Australia

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

53

55

53

50

54

53

31

Same

21

20

19

22

22

26

39

Worse

26

25

28

28

24

21

30

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Voting Intention – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Analysing the results by voting intention shows it is supporters of the new Labour-New Zealand First-Greens Government that are most optimistic about 2018 with 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of New Zealand First supporters and 82% of Greens supporters expecting 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017. However, only 30% of National supporters expect 2018 to be ‘better’ while 43% of National supporters say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017.

Total
NZ

Electors

Labour

National

NZ First

Greens

Other

Can’t say

Non electors

Total
Australia

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

53

53

74

30

67

82

42

27

59

31

Same

21

22

18

27

17

14

18

49

13

39

Worse

26

25

8

43

16

4

40

24

28

30

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“A majority of 53% of New Zealanders say 2018 will be a ‘better’ year than 2017 compared to only 26% that say it will be ‘worse’ and this optimism has clearly been driven by the recent election victory of new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

“It is supporters of the new Labour-New Zealand First-Greens Government that have a very optimistic view of next year with 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of New Zealand First supporters and 82% of Greens supporters saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 30% of National supporters.

“In addition, a striking majority of 58% of women believer 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to 48% of men while a majority of all age groups under 65 also believe 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 including 58% of 18-24yr old, 56% of 25-34yr olds and 57% of 35-49yr olds.

“Comparing sentiment in New Zealand to their counterparts across the Tasman in Australia shows New Zealanders are far more optimistic than Australians – only 31% of Australians say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, a record low result for the survey first conducted in 1980.”


Finding No. 7415 – This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders on November 15-20, 2017. They
were asked “Do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093