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Victorians give their views on the next State Government - Whether that is an ALP or L-NP Government

This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted Tuesday & Wednesday November 13-14, 2018, with a Victoria-wide cross section of 626 electors.
Victorians have given their views on the next Victorian Government after this week’s Victorian State Election – whether that be an ALP Government led by Premier Daniel Andrews or a new L-NP Government led by Liberal Leader Matthew Guy.

Roy Morgan asked Victorian electors – two questions: “What, if anything, would concern you about a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews” and “What, if anything, would concern you about a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy?” The questions were asked in reverse order depending upon who the electors are supporting.

Concerns about a re-elected ALP Government under Daniel Andrews

  • ALP supporters mostly felt great about Premier Daniel Andrews and the job he’s doing leading the ALP Government. Their concerns, if any, were related to the potential for the Government to engage in excessive spending and running up the debt.

    ALP supporters also mentioned the handling of the dispute between the Country Fire Authority (CFA) and Metropolitan Fire Brigade (MFB) and the closeness of the Andrew Government to unions including the United Firefighters Union (UFU). There were also concerns expressed about the Government’s commitment to rural infrastructure, increasing crime and the recently revealed deal with China.

  • L-NP supporters were concerned about the ALP Government’s out of control and wasteful spending and the increasing debt while other issues mentioned included lack of trust in politicians, their broken promises and corruption, the close connections between the Andrews Government and the unions and being soft on crime and issues with law and order and gangs.

  • Greens supporters were concerned about the unions having too much power, the tendency for the Andrews Government to focus too heavily on the city at the expense of regional areas and issues related to investment in public transport and infrastructure.


Concerns if the Liberal-Nationals are elected led by Matthew Guy

  • L-NP supporter concerns about Liberal Leader Matthew Guy leading a Liberal-National Government encompassed his low profile and lack of experience as well as his apparent lack of vision and whether he is up to the job. Many L-NP supporters also mentioned the issue of trust and whether the Liberals could be trusted to follow through on the promises they were making as well as concern about potential cuts to health, education and other services.

    However, a great many L-NP supporters mentioned they have no concerns whatsoever about a potential Liberal-National Government being elected under Matthew Guy.

  • ALP supporters were concerned about Matthew Guy’s lack of experience of as a leader and what do we really know about him, and his policies as well as Guy’s past job as Planning Minister in the Napthine Government. Guy’s role as Planning Minister also brought in concerns about corruption and closeness to big business and property developers. Also criticised was the attitude of the Liberal Party to climate change and renewable energy.

  • Greens supporters were concerned about a Liberal Government’s issues of dishonesty, lack of trust and breaking promises, the closeness of Liberal Leader Matthew Guy to big business and concerns about their environmental and climate change policies as well as worries about their behaviour, trustworthiness, religiousity and the impact of their religious convictions on social policies.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says:

“Roy Morgan’s in-depth qualitative research into the concerns electors have about the next Government of Victoria show there are some concerns that transgress political boundaries – such as concerns about trust and honesty in politics – and some issues that break down more conventional party lines such as health & education and economic management & spending.

“Supporters of all parties express a high degree of cynicism about the promises made by political leaders particularly in the context of a campaign to win an election and form Government.

“Electors are naturally more cynical about the party they aren’t voting for although as outlined above there are ALP supporters that question the role of unions in a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews and Liberal supporters concerned about the influence of big business on a potential Liberal-National Government under Liberal Party Leader Matthew Guy.

“As I outlined on Sky News Conroy & Kroger last week when discussing the result of this week’s Victorian Election there is a large proportion of the Victorian electorate disillusioned with both of the major parties and as many as 40% of Victorian electors indicated they would be prepared to vote for the Greens or another minor party at this year’s election.

“However, as we have seen repeatedly in the past, support for the Greens invariably falls when voters get in the booth and consider the choice they have about who will form the next Government – which is certainly not going to be the Greens.

“In addition to this usual trend there were a number of scandals last week involving Greens candidates such as Greens rapper Angus McAlpine that have raised further questions about the suitability of the Greens as a serious alternative which will bring their vote more into line with historical trends.

“Although Victorian electors have plenty of questions surrounding the conduct of the Andrews Government on a number of issues, including a perception from many of excessive spending and their closeness to the unions, the strong performance of the Victorian economy this year is likely to prove decisive in re-electing Premier Daniel Andrews to another term.

“The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence figures show consumer confidence in Victoria is tracking above 120 compared to a national average of 116.8 in October and history shows it is rare indeed that a Government presiding over a strong economy is ousted by electors.”

This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted Tuesday & Wednesday November 13-14, 2018, with a Victoria-wide cross section of 626 electors. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports.



Concerns about a re-elected ALP Government under Daniel Andrews

Electors were asked: “What, if anything, would concern you about a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews?


ALP supporter concerns about a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews included excessive spending and debt, the ties the Government has with the unions and in particular the UFU (United Firefighters Union) in relation to the dispute with the CFA, emphasis on rural infrastructure, increasing crime and the recently revealed deal with China although the majority of ALP supporters professed no concerns about a re-elected Andrews Government.

The most prominent concern mentioned by ALP supporters about a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews was excessive spending and running up the debt.

“The cost to taxpayers for the upgrades and works taking place in Victoria.”

“Over-spending.”

“Committing to long-term pay increases.”

“Spending and debt.”

“Election promises are headline grabbers and too costly to fund.”

“Taxes and spending.”

“Spending too much money.”

“The amount of spending.”

“Traditionally the ALP weakness is money management.”

“Pork-barrelling marginal seats rather than needs based spending.”

Another issue that was mentioned by several respondents revolved around the closeness of the Andrews Government to the unions and their handling of the dispute with the CFA involving the United Firefighters Union (UFU).

“Too close to the United Firefighters Union (UFU).”

“Very little except perhaps there is too much union influence.”

“The deal between Andrews and the Firefighters Union (UFU).”

“Firefighters.”

“Minor, but I wonder if he handles some of the unions as well as he should.”

“The Government is too close to the unions.”

“Unclear ties to the Firefighters Union.”

“The CFA issue needs to be sorted so the thousands of volunteers are looked after. The Metropolitan Fire Brigade (MFB) are not capable of looking after regional Victoria without the goodwill of the CFA.”

“CFA and unions issue.”

Other issues that were sparingly mentioned included  whether the Andrews Government is doing enough for rural infrastructure, its dealings with the Chinese Government and increasing crime.

“No regional train extension to Horsham.”

“Will there be sufficient emphasis on rural infrastrucure.”

“Roads and rail in regional Victoria.”

“The Ballarat station plans need a review.”

“Transport gridlocks on road and rail and real concerns of a Chinese takeover of infrastructure.”

“The deal with China in relation to the infrastructure.”

“The crime rate is soaring in my local area because they’re too lenient on offenders.”

“Crime.”

“Andrews isn’t doing enough to curb the current crime situation. Home invasions etc. and sentencing needs to be tightened for those that are caught.”

“Gang violence is out of control.”

However, although there were concerns expressed as noted above, the most common response from ALP voters was to express confidence in the current ALP Government led by Daniel Andrews and many couldn’t think of any concerns they had.

“I’m not concerned because I think he has done a lot for Victoria since becoming Premier.”

“None, he’s doing a great job.”

“None.”

“I think Daniel Andrews is doing a fantastic job and I honestly haven’t seen so much building and progress in our State since Steve Bracks was leading the State.”

“Nil.”

“Absolutely none.”

“No concerns – I want more of what the Andrews Government is delivering.”

“None. No concerns.”

“No concerns.”

“None whatsoever.”

“Nothing. I’m happy with what Daniel Andrews is doing.”

“Let the current Government go ahead with their programs we see things happening.”

“No concerns come to mind.”

“Zero.”


The most prominent issue repeatedly mentioned by L-NP supporters as a concern surrounding a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews relates to too much spending and increasing debt, while other issues mentioned included lack of trust in politicians, their broken promises and corruption, the close connections between the Andrews Government and the unions and being soft on crime and issues with law and order and gangs.

L-NP supporters are particularly concerned about the spending by the Andrews-led Government with wasteful spending, out of control spending, running up the debt and the lack of financial control brought up repeatedly by L-NP supporters.

“Too much spending.”

“Over-spending and not honouring all their promises.”

“Where and how they spend their money.”

“How he gave away a billion dollars of our money NOT to build a road!”

“Wasting money all over the place.”

“Debt.”

“Wasting more taxpayers’ money and increasing taxes to pay for it.”

“Over-spending.”

“The lack of financial control and the lies told along with that.”

“Money waste.”

“His out of control spending means I won’t vote for him.”

“Financial management and mis-management.”

“Wasting too much money and implementing more taxes.”

“Spending.”

“A repeat of the irresponsible wasting of hard-earned taxpayers money espeically the East-West Link ($1 billion!). And now the irresponsibly signed China Belt & Road initiative which he irresponsibly signed without any consultation with the Federal Government which may end up costing us Victorians but not him personally!”

“Where is the money coming from without raising the cost of living.”

“Money spent.”

“Cost blow-outs.”

“Concerned that he is going to put us into debt with all he is doing.”

L-NP supporters were also very concerned about the trustworthiness of the ALP Andrews’ Government and the broken promises by Andrews indicating a culture of dishonesty in relation to the Government and questions about Premier Daniel Andrews personal integrity.

“Not honouring all promises made.”

“Telling the truth.”

“Dishonesty.”

“Broken promises.”

“Lack of honesty.”

“Andrews is a dishonest Premier.”

“Untrustworthy.”

“A lot of promises, not a lot of results.”

“Unrealistic promises.”

“Andrews is too cunning. A bit too late to make promises now.”

“They’re not honest.”

“He’s a crook and a dishonest one at that!”

“Lack of accountability, transparency and honesty.”

“He’s a weak leader with too many promises she doesn’t deliver.”

“A dishonest Premier.”

“Lack of accountability along with arrogance.”

“He’s gutless, not a leader.”

“Dislike him intensely.”

Also frequently mentioned by L-NP supporters were the Andrews’ Government’s ties to the unions and being under union control tied in with suggestions of corruption illustrated by the debacle with the so-called ‘red-shirts’ often brought up.

“Union uprising.”

“The lack of compliance over the red shirts debacle.”

“Refusing to let allow his cabinet to answer police questions about the red shirts.”

“The red shirts.”

“Andrews refuses to let members of the Government speak to the police about the red shirts scandal.”

“The red shirts cover-up.”

“The red shirts rort.”

“The red shirt saga.”

“More red shirt type scandals will no doubt occur.”

“Union influence.”

“Abuse of power with what he wants to do with the CFA and the UFU.”

“He is so full of his own importance. He also has no control of the unions.”

“His closeness to the union movement.”

“He’s controlled by the unions.”

“Union dominance.”

“Union influence and favouritism.”

“Union control of the Government.”

“The refusal by Andrews to acknowledge his ties to the unions.”

“The connections to unionist Bill Shorten.”

“Daniel Andrews rorts.”

Also frequently mentioned by Liberal and National Party supporters as a concern relating to the Andrews Government is the issue of crime and problems with implementing law and order in Victoria with some tying these problems to immigration.

“Law and order.”

“African immigration contributing to a rise in crime.”

“Crime and gangs running rampant.”

“Law and order in Victoria is deteriorating.”

“The Government needs to get tougher in relation to crime.”

“The Andrews Government has been soft on crime in Victoria.”

“There’ll be more crime and less of anything else.”

“Our safety.”

“The crime rate in Victoria is out of control.”

“Crime.”

“Law enforcement will deteriorate further.”

“Safety and law and order are under threat.”

“Andrews is very weak on crime.”

“The amount of crime on the street.”


Greens supporters concerns about a re-elected ALP Government led by Premier Daniel Andrews centred on the unions having too much power, the tendency to focus too heavily on the city at the expense of regional areas and issues related to public transport and infrastructure.

“The unions having more power over the CFA.”

“His priorities tend to focus on the city.”

“Basically there is not a lot of difference between the major parties. One would hope they would be more focused on supporting workers, regional areas, and those with genuine need but sadly that is not always the case.”

“A lack of courage to build infrastructure quickly.”

“Inaction on infrasructure.”

“Public transport is an issue in the West and access to parking at train stations such as Tarneit.”

“The Rowville rail not being constructed as a heavy rail line and instead being given a light rail line that won’t be used. It’s worse for me than my current travel plans of taking the train from Ferntree Gully!”

“They can manage railway crossing removals but not the reliable provision of essential services like after school care programs for working families.”

“The North East Link.”

“The lack of transparency around planning and infrastructure decisions.”

“State education and teacher salary funding.”

“The circle train around Melbourne being an empty promise.”

“Overdevelopment.”


Concerns if the Liberal-Nationals are elected led by Matthew Guy

Electors were asked: “What, if anything, would concern you about a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy?


ALP supporter concerns about the election of a Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy brought up the lack of experience of Matthew Guy as a leader and what do we really know about him, and his policies as well as Guy’s past job as Planning Minister in the Napthine Government. Also criticised was the attitude of the Liberal Party to climate change and renewable energy.

Many ALP supporters also cited a lack of trust of Guy and his fellow Liberal politicians and that the Liberals are in the pockets of big business and suggestions of corruption with regards to Guy in reference to the infamous ‘lobster’ meal.

Most prominently ALP supporters question Guy’s inexperience and suitability for the job given his dishonesty and untrustworthiness, the lack of any real policies, or not trusting the policies they do have.

“Where do I start……?”

“I do not trust him. He was a terrible planning minister.”

“He lies about most things and on the one hand would destroy Daniel Andrews’ plans and then on the other hand take them up again and call them his own ideas.”

“Their lack of vision.”

“Matthew Guy is sleazy.”

“I just don’t trust a Liberal Government.”

“Don’t trust the man or the party. With the Libs it’s always just about the rich getting richer.”

“Guy is an unpopular leader.”

“I live in the safest National seat in Victoria and nothing ever gets done! Tells you everything you need to know.”

“Inexperience, untrustworthy and bad policies. A terrible combination!”

“A poor leader with poor policies.”

“A poor performance from Matthew Guy the last time the Liberals were in power.”

“I don’t trust him.”

“His history as a politician.”

“No policy announcements and no experience.”

“Hopeless economic management, and no idea about law and order or infrastructure.”

“No real policies.”

“Don’t trust them on education and mental health policies.”

“The Liberals lack policy, leadership and a vision for Victoria.”

“Misrepresentation of facts by himself and his party.”

Matthew Guy’s connections to property devlopers and big business and previous stint as Planning Minister in the Napthine Government and the whiff of corruption created by the ‘lobster’ dinner with shady businessmen also came in for criticism.

“Guy was a terrible Planning Minister.”

“It would be good for a change if they thought about what ordinary people want instead of pandering to their business mates and minority special interest groups.”

“Pandering to big business.”

“Guy concerns me greatly after he stuffed up Fisherman’s bend – skyscrapers without limit.”

“Corruption.”

“Influence of the IPA.”

“They are simply a puppet of big business.”

“His record as Planning Minister is laced with corruption.”

“I can’t really trust him after the lobster cave incident.”

“They are only interested in supporting big business and allowing them to rip off the worker.”

“Corrupt planning decisions favour Liberal donors.”

“Full of hot air and talks with a forked tongue!”

“I don’t believe they have the interests of the average person at heart.”

“Matthew Guy and his corrupt connections to property developers.”

“Guy and Napthine should be in jail for what they did with their mismanagement when last in power.”

“Over-development and corporate needs above individuals.”

“He’s an incompetent politician who’s too close to property developers.”

“Too many rich and corrupt mates.”

“Guy is a crook who used is position as Planning Minister in the previous government to line the pockets to Liberal Party members and other business associates.”

“They are untrustworthy. Guy should have stepped down after the lobster scandal.”

Many ALP supporters also expressed concern about the policies of a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy in relation to the environment and policies for climate change and renewable energy.

“Liberal policies on climate change, renewable energy are a concern.”

“Their lack of understanding of climate change.”

“No clear plan on future energy resources.”

“That they will remove renewable energy and put in a new coal plant.”

“We will go backwards and the coal lobby will be wielding their power over the Liberals again.”

“Their climate change denial and continued reliance on fossil fuels.”

“No action on cliamte change under the Liberals.”

“Environmental and planning policies.”

“An unrealistic attitude to energy policy and climate change.”

“Infrastructure and sustainable energy projects not getting focused upon.”

“Their refusal to believe in climate change.”

“They’ll be a disaster for a surge in renewable in Victoria.”

“Environmental destruction.”

“Lack of action on climate change.”

“The Liberals under Matthew Guy won’t do anything on climate change.”


L-NP supporter concerns about the potential election of a Liberal-National Government under Liberal Leader Matthew Guy encompassed his low profile and lack of experience as well as his apparent lack of vision and whether he is up to the job.

Many L-NP supporters also mentioned the issue of trust and whether the Liberals could be trusted to follow through on the promises they were making as well as concern about potential cuts to health, education and other services.

As for ALP supporters, many L-NP supporters mentioned they have no concerns whatsoever about a potential Liberal-National Government being elected under Matthew Guy.

L-NP supporters biggest concern with a Liberal-National Government under Liberal Leader Matthew Guy is his low profile, lack of experience and vision and questions about whether he’s up to the job.

“That I don’t really know him. I don’t follow politics that much but he needs more exposure.”

“Lack of drive from Matthew Guy. The Liberals needs a more hard-nosed leader. Remember, you are competing with against a Premier that has no moral compass.”

“I am not sure that Matthew Guy is up to the job.”

“Guy doesn’t show good leadership to me.”

“Inexperience. It’s something that only being in Government can fix.”

“There’s not much known about the Liberal Party and platforms. Guy has a low profile currently.”

“Are they ready to govern is a concern. All the polls suggest Labor will win confidently so I’m not sure the Liberal-Nationals will be ready to go if they win.”

“Not sure he is strong enough. He seems to come across very negative at times.”

“Just inexperience. Let’s get rid of Labor.”

“Experience?”

“Guy isn’t personable.”

“The stability to function effectively in Government.”

L-NP supporters also had questions about how much they could trust Guy and the Liberals and whether the promises they’ve made will be kept as well as their promise to cut various services.

“Promises with dubious financial foundation.”

“I hope they have the money to fulfil all their promises.”

“False promises.”

“Sticking to promises.”

“Removal of services.”

“That the ambulance reforms will be shut down and the TAFE programs stopped.”

“The cuts to services.”

“Cutting education, cutting health and cutting pensions and payments to the poor.”

“Their cuts to hospitals is a concern.”

“Cutting services and needed road transport infrastructure and also over-promising and under-delivering I feel might be a problem.”

“Guy’s lack of scruples.”

“I don’t want promises or gimmicks to buy my vote. I want integrity and vision from a leader who doesn’t squander money without regard for hos projects are to be funded.”

Apart from the concerns expressed above many Liberal-National supporters were confident that a Matthew Guy led Government would be an improvement over the current Government and had no concerns about the prospect of a Liberal-National victory this week.

“None.”

“No concerns at all. I hope he gets in.”

“No issues.”

“A breath of fresh air and maybe some accountability.”

“My only concern is that the state would come off the downward spiral it is now on.”

“None. More worried about having a Dan led ALP Government again.”

“No concern whatsoever.”

“Nothing. I just hope they have a majority in both houses so the Government isn’t held back by a Greens/Labor opposition.”

“None at this time.”

“None. Could not be as bad as Labor!”

“I have no concerns. I will be relieved.”

“No concerns.”

“None whatsoever.”

“Anything would be better than Andrews.”

“Will be very happy. J

“Nil.”

“Lesser of the two incompetents.”


Greens supporters had significant concerns about a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy with issues of dishonesty, lack of trust and breaking promises, the closeness of Matthew Guy and the Liberals to big business and concerns about their environmental and climate change policies as well as worries about their behaviour and social policies.

“Dishonest!”

“Corrupt.”

“Everything!”

“Skulduggery and corruption.”

“They are more concerned with looking after big business and their friends.”

“Dodgy.”

“That’s he’s a lobster eating, mafia loving, conservative tard who should be fired from a cannon into the sun. He’s untrustworthy, cruel, a weasel and unfit for public service.”

“Matthew Guy.”

“Mainly his history of dodgy planning and not listening to the people.”

“He’s untrustworthy, cruel, a weasel and unfit for public service.”

“They are dishonest.”

“Guy’s dishonesty about dealing with developers.”

“As Planning Minister Guy wanted the tunnel built against all expert advice and objections. I fought hard against it for my wellbeing and my suburb won’t ever forget.”

“Climate change.”

“Building freeways and stealing green spaces.”

“Anti-clean energy and their racist dog-whistling.”

“Very poor climate and energy policies.”

“Failure to deal with environmental problems and their outdated views on social issues.”

“Guy is untrustworthy and drums up fear and division and has poor neo-conservative based policies – and particularly in relation to the environment.”

“Their racism, misogyny and the impact of the Liberal Party on those who are disabled and/or low income.”

“Governing?”

“Literally everything he stands for is terrible. He is a fear mongering racist with no concern for the working or lower class. He cuts arts, health and education budgets. He is a white supremacist.”

“Their antiquated gender views.”

“Homophobia and transphobia.”

“The infiltration of the religious nutbags who want to make Victoria a theocracy and the L-NP tendency to destroy."


This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted Tuesday & Wednesday November 13-14, 2018, with a Victoria-wide cross section of 626 electors. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports.

For further information:

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