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Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election

Finding No. 8041 – This Roy Morgan Poll on Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via face-to-face interviewing during the last two weeks of June. Roy Morgan interviewed 1,499 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019.

Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating has jumped by 11.5pts to 104.5 following the L-NP’s victory at the Federal Election in mid-May. Now 43.5% of electors say the country is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 39% say the ‘wrong direction’.

Interviewing conducted over the past fortnight of June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019 compared to the final pre-election Morgan Poll in early May shows 43.5% (up 6%) of electors saying Australia is now heading in the ‘right direction’ and 39% (down 5.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

The turnaround in Government Confidence since the Federal Election is driven by strong increases in Government Confidence amongst a number of key demographics including L-NP supporters and supporters of Independents/ Others, electors in Country Areas, electors in the States of Queensland and Western Australia, electors aged over 50 years old and electors of both genders.


Government Confidence jumps for L-NP supporters and supporters of Independent/Others

Since the Federal Election Government Confidence has increased for L-NP supporters by a huge 30pts to 140.5. More than half of L-NP supporters 62.5% (up 17%) now say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and only 22% (down 13%) now say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

However, Government Confidence amongst ALP supporters has dropped 14.5pts to 84 after the party lost an election most Australians expected the ALP would win. Now just 33% (down 8.5%) of ALP supporters say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ while 49% (up 6%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

Government Confidence has barely changed for supporters of the Greens although the rating remains well into negative territory at 72.5, a drop of 4pts since the election. Now 29.5% (up 3%) of Greens supporters say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 57% (up 7%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

Although supporters of Independents/Others still have a low Government Confidence there has been a significant jump since the Federal Election up by 16pts to 74.5. Now 28.5% (up 8%) of supporters of Independents/Others (such as One Nation, Katter Party, Centre Alliance, United Australia Party and others) say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ while a slim majority of 54% (down 8%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Government Confidence up strongly in regional Australia and up slightly in metro areas

Australians in Country Areas are feeling more positive about the direction of the country than prior to the Federal Election with Government Confidence increasing 22.5pts to 104.5. Now 43.5% (up 12%) of electors in Country Areas say Australia is going in the ‘right direction’ compared to 39% (down 10.5%) that say Australia is going in the ‘wrong direction’.

Government Confidence has also increased for Australians in Capital Cities and is now in positive territory at 105, up by 6.5pts from prior to the Federal Election. Now 44% (up 3.5%) of Australians in Capital Cities say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 39% (down 3%) now say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Government Confidence up strongly for both women and men

Government Confidence has increased strongly for both genders. Women’s Government Confidence is up 10.5pts to 103 with 42.5% (up 6%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 39.5% (down 4.5%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

However, this is still behind Government Confidence for men which is now well into positive territory at 106.5, up 13.5pts since the Federal Election. Now 45% (up 7%) of men say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and only 38.5% (down 6.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Government Confidence up for all age groups and especially 50-64 and 65+ year olds

Government Confidence increased strongly for Australians aged 50-64 years old since the Federal Election up by 19.5pts to 113 and is now the higher for this age group than any other. Now 51.5% (up 12%) of 50-64 year olds say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 38.5% (down 7.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

Australians aged 65+ years old are  more positive than before the election and their Government Confidence is up 17pts to 107. Now 45.5% (up 10.5%) of Australians aged 65+ years old say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 38.5% (down 6.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

Government Confdience has also increased strongly for younger Australians aged 18-34 year old at 105, up by 11.5pts since the Federal Election. Now 42% (up 5.5%) of 18-34 year olds say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 37% (down 6%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

Australians aged 35-49 years old are now the only age group with a negative Government Confidence below 100 of 94, up by only 0.5pts from prior to the Federal Election. Now 36.5% (down 2%) of Australians aged 35-49 years old say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 42.5% (down 2.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says, the boost to Government Confidence since the Federal Election is driven by Coalition voters as Government Confidence has dropped for ALP & Greens supporters since mid-May:

“Roy Morgan Government Confidence has leapt 11.5pts into positive territory at 104.5 following the L-NP’s victory at a close Federal Election in late May. The L-NP won a bare majority of 77 seats in the expanded Federal Parliament, an increase of 1 seat from the 2016 Federal Election.

“The increase in Government Confidence comes as Federal Parliament sits for the first time since the Federal Election this week and the L-NP Government seeks to legislate three tranches of income tax cuts to stimulate the economy over the next few years.

“Also doing its part to stimulate the economy is the RBA which cut interest rates in June by 0.25% and followed up this week with another cut in interest rates to a record low 1%. The RBA is expected to continue cutting interest rates during the remainder of 2019.

“The drivers of the increase in Government Confidence since the Federal Election were clearly Coalition voters for whom Government Confidence soared by 30pts to 140.5. Government Confidence was also up strongly for supporters of Independents/Others by 16pts to 74.5.

“However the unexpected ALP loss at the Federal Election has hit ALP supporters for whom Government Confidence fell 14.5pts to 84 and was also down for Greens supporters by 4pts to only 72.5.

“Government Confidence for Australians in Country Areas jumped 22.5pts to 104.5 to draw almost level with those in Capital Cities on 105, up 6.5pts and there were big increases in L-NP strongholds of Queensland, up 20pts to 104 and Western Australia, up 15pts to 110.5. The L-NP now holds 34 out of the 46 seats up for grabs in those two States.”

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Finding No. 8041 – This Roy Morgan Poll on Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via face-to-face interviewing during the last two weeks of June. Roy Morgan interviewed 1,499 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 151 electorates ranked by an issue).


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Electors

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

37.5

44.5

93

18

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

43.5

39

104.5

17.5

100

Change

+6

-5.5

+11.5pts

-0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting Intention

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

L-NP

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

45.5

35

110.5

19.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

62.5

22

140.5

15.5

100

Change

+17

-13

+30pts

-4

 

ALP

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

41.5

43

98.5

15.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

33

49

84

18

100

Change

-8.5

+6

-14.5pts

+2.5

 

Greens

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

26.5

50

76.5

23.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

29.5

57

72.5

13.5

100

Change

+3

+7

-4pts

-10

 

Independents/Others

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

20.5

62

58.5

17.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

28.5

54

74.5

17.5

100

Change

+8

-8

+16pts

-

 

Can’t say*

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

20

64.5

55.5

15.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

36

32.5

103.5

31.5

100

Change

+16

-32

+48

+16


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

Region

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Capital Cities

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

40.5

42

98.5

17.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

44

39

105

17

100

Change

+3.5

-3

+6.5pts

-0.5

 

Country Areas

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

31.5

49.5

82

19

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

43.5

39

104.5

17.5

100

Change

+12

-10.5

+22.5pts

-1.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

State

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

NSW

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

34.5

44.5

90

21

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

38.5

39.5

99

22

100

Change

+4

-5

+9pts

+1

 

Victoria

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

43.5

41.5

102

15

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

49

38

111

13

100

Change

+5.5

-3.5

+9pts

-2

 

Queensland

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

32

48

84

20

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

42.5

38.5

104

19

100

Change

+10.5

-9.5

+20pts

-1

 

WA

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

41.5

46

95.5

12.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

51

40.5

110.5

8.5

100

Change

+9.5

-5.5

+15pts

-4

 

SA

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

34.5

41.5

93

24

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

41

41.5

99.5

17.5

100

Change

+6.5

-

+6.5pts

-6.5

 

Tasmania

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

43

40

103

17

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

46

49

97

5

100

Change

+3

+9

-6pts

-12


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

Gender

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Women

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

36.5

44

92.5

19.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

42.5

39.5

103

18

100

Change

+6

-4.5

+10.5pts

-1.5

 

Men

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

38

45

93

17

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

45

38.5

106.5

16.5

100

Change

+7

-6.5

+13.5pts

-0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

Age

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

18-34

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

36.5

43

93.5

20.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

42

37

105

21

100

Change

+5.5

-6

+11.5pts

+0.5

 

35-49

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

38.5

45

93.5

16.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

36.5

42.5

94

21

100

Change

-2

-2.5

+0.5pts

+4.5

 

50-64

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

39.5

46

93.5

14.5

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

51.5

38.5

113

10

100

Change

+12

-7.5

+19.5pts

-4.5

 

65+

May 4/5 & 11/12, 2019

35

45

90

20

100

June 22/23 & 29/30, 2019

45.5

38.5

107

16

100

Change

+10.5

-6.5

+17pts

-4



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