Real unemployment & under-employment stuck above 2 million
The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for September shows:
In September 1.2 million Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) with an additional 970,000 (7.0%) now under-employed.
- The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, has increased year-on-year by 416,000 to 13,836,000. The increasing workforce was driven entirely by an increase in full-time employment as unemployment and part-time employment fell;
- Employment was up 470,000 to 12,634,000 in September 2019 – the rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 773,000 to 8,467,000. However, over the past year part-time employment has declined by 303,000 to 4,167,000;
- Unemployment was down 54,000 on a year ago to 1,202,000 Australians and the unemployment rate is down by 0.7% to 8.7%. In addition under-employment is down by 155,000 to 972,000 Australians (down 1.4% to 7% of the workforce) over the past year which includes Australians working part-time and looking for more work;
- Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.7% for September is higher than the current ABS estimate for August 2019 of 5.3%, although the gap between the two measures is closer than usual. Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 7% is now slightly below the current ABS under-employment estimate of 8.6%;
- Roy Morgan’s total unemployment and under-employment of 2,174,000 Australians (15.7% of the workforce) in September, down 209,000 on a year ago, is larger than figures usually proffered, but the biennial ABS survey the ‘Barriers and Incentives to Labour Force Participation’ last released in 2017 claims a much higher figure of 2.7 million Australians would like a job or to work more hours – including 1.1 million people the ABS said wanted a job but are excluded from the Labour Force.
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – September 2019. Average monthly interviews 4,000.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says strong jobs growth over the last year has helped drive down both unemployment and under-employment, however over 2 million Australians are still looking for work or looking for more work:
“Roy Morgan’s data shows real unemployment and under-employment is at 2.17 million in September, representing 15.7% of the workforce. This marks a significant improvement over the last year with the measure declining 2.1% points following strong full-time jobs growth.
“However, despite these positive signs, real unemployment and under-employment has now marked four straight years above 2 million, stretching back to September 2015 (1.99 million – 15.6%).
“The interest rate cuts in June and July as well as significant income tax cuts legislated in recent months appear to have stabilised the economy after a rough start to 2019. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low of only 0.75% in October will also provide additional stimulus.
“It’s also worth noting the RBA doesn’t have much room for further interest rate cuts in the remainder of this year and heading into 2020. There are several candidates to increase economic uncertainty in the next few months include the US-China trade war, a messy Brexit ‘divorce deal’ between the UK and the EU or even a risk of conflict in the Middle East.
“If any of these were to escalate over the next year, the RBA, as well as the Federal Government, would have to consider more unconventional means to ensure the Australian economy keeps growing and providing jobs for an increasing population.
“Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed, who and where they are, and what challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.”
This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 645,996 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2019 and includes 5,017 face-to-face interviews in September 2019. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.
Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles including for Australians who are employed, unemployed, under-employed, employed part-time, employed full-time, retired, studying and many more.
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Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates
*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.
For further information:
| Contact | Office | Mobile |
| Gary Morgan: | +61 3 9224 5213 | +61 411 129 094 |
| Michele Levine: | +61 3 9224 5215 | +61 411 129 093 |
Unemployment Data Tables
ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
