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Indonesian Consumer Confidence up 2.2pts to 161.7 in November

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,279 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in November throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased to 161.7 in November, up 2.2pts from the previous month. Consumer Confidence is now 2.6pts higher than it was a year ago (159.1).

Analysis of Consumer Confidence by household income quintiles shows solid increases at either end of the curve compared to a year ago, while there has been little change for the lower-middle income quintiles.

Indonesians in the wealthiest household income quintile, the fifth, continue to have clearly the highest Consumer Confidence, now at 172.7, up 2.1pts on a year ago and far higher than any other quintile. Consumer Confidence among those in the next highest quintile has also increased, rising by 3.8pts to 163.1 and remaining clearly above average.

The lowest household income quintile again has the lowest Consumer Confidence at 147.7, however this is an increase of 5.4pts on a year ago – the largest increase for any quintile. In contrast, the only quintile for which Consumer Confidence has dropped is the middle income quintile, now at 161.7 matching the average.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up again in November and is now at its highest since August. Consumer Confidence is also up on a year ago and looks set to have its best ever year. Thus far in 2019 Consumer Confidence has averaged a stunning 160 – an increase of nearly 2pts on the record high average of 158.1 achieved in 2018 with only one month to go, said Ira Soekirman, Director of Roy Morgan Indonesia.

The good news is that the benefits of the high Consumer Confidence are being felt by different sectors of society. The largest increases in Consumer Confidence over the last year is for the lowest household income quintile (up 5.4pts to 147.7) ahead of the two highest quintiles indicating a widespread growth in confidence amongst Indonesians of varying means as we head into the new year.” said Ms. Soekirman.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Household Income Quintile: Nov. 2018 cf. Nov. 2019

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Nov. 2018 (n=1,290) & Nov. 2019 (n=1,279).

Long-term Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence: 2009-2019

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ November 2019 (n=1,279).

Increased confidence about the Indonesian economy drives rise in Consumer Confidence


Analysis of the latest consumer confidence compared to a month ago shows the monthly increase is driven by increasing confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy going forward.

In November, 92% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and just 7% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

Looking at the longer-term, 95% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 5% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

Now 41% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and only 8% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

An increasing majority of 72% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and only 3% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

An unchanged majority of 65% of Indonesians say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 33% (up 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Comparing Indonesian Consumer Confidence with the longer-term, the current rating is a significant 23.9pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 137.6.

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,279 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in November throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia December 14/15, 2019 – 108.0) and New Zealand (November 2019 – 120.7); long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.


For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0