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L-NP (51.5%) now ahead of ALP (48.5%) and Government Confidence soars 34pts in April as Australia faces COVID-19

Support for the L-NP has surged to 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis in April according to telephone and online interviewing conducted over the weekends of April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 with a representative cross-section of 2,806 Australian electors.

Support for the L-NP has surged to 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis in April according to telephone and online interviewing conducted over the weekends of April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 with a representative cross-section of 2,806 Australian electors.

L-NP support is up 4.5% points from mid-March and is now at its highest since the honeymoon period following Scott Morrison’s unexpected Federal Election victory in May last year. 

Roy Morgan Government Confidence soars 34pts to 124

In addition the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has surged to a record high for an L-NP Government of 124 in April, up a stunning 34pts since mid-March.

Now a majority of 51.5% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, up 14.5% points since mid-March while only 27.5% (down 19.5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP increased an impressive 7% to 43.5% in April and is now well ahead of the ALP on 33% (down 3%). 

Greens support is up 0.5% to 11.5% while support for One Nation is at 3% (down 1%). Support for Independents/Others is down 3.5% to 9%.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says:

“Support for the L-NP Government has increased substantially in April as thus far Australia has successfully dealt with the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. The jump in L-NP support comes after Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the L-NP Government faced months of criticism earlier this year for their handling of the summer bushfires crisis. The L-NP (51.5%) now leads the ALP (48.5%) on a two-party preferred basis for the first time this year.

“A key indicator of the Government’s improved support is the soaring Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which has increased a stunning 34pts to 124. This is the highest rating since February 2011 during the height of the Mining Boom under Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

“A majority of 51.5% of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – up 14.5% points since mid-March and the first time a majority of Australians have agreed with this since the L-NP Government was first elected in September 2013 more than six years ago.

“Government Confidence among L-NP voters has jumped 31pts to 157.5 and the biggest increases have been in Country Areas (+38.5pts), Victoria (+40.5pts), New South Wales (+35pts) and South Australia (+35pts). Women’s Government Confidence has jumped past men, up 45pts to 127.5, while for men Government Confidence improved 21pts to 119.5.

“During times of crisis Roy Morgan has frequently observed support for the Government increases as voters ‘rally around the flag’. This has played out during times conflict, terrorism, and also financial and economic upheaval in the past.

“However, there was an exception to this trend earlier this year when support for the L-NP Government dropped significantly during the bushfires as Australians felt Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his government bungled their handling of the crisis. L-NP two-party preferred support dropped to only 45% in early February and Roy Morgan Government Confidence hit a record low of only 80 in late January.

“The recovery in both indicators over the past month has been spectacular but perhaps not surprising when one considers the undoubted success of the National Cabinet comprising Federal, State and Territory Leaders in halting the spread of COVID-19 in a matter of weeks without widespread fatalities from the deadly virus.”

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Electors

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

37

47

90

16

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

51.5

27.5

124

21

100

Change

+14.5

-19.5

+34pts

+5


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting Intention

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

L-NP

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

55

28.5

126.5

16.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

71

13.5

157.5

15.5

100

Change

+16

-15

+31pts

-1

ALP

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

31.5

53.5

78

15

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

43.5

35

108.5

21.5

100

Change

+12

-18.5

+30.5pts

+6.5

Greens

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

23.5

64

59.5

12.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

29.5

46.5

83

24

100

Change

+6

-17.5

+28pts

+11.5

Independents/Others

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

23

62

61

15

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

29

43

86

28

100

Change

+6

-19

+25pts

+13

Can’t say*

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

28

50.5

77.5

21.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

41

24

117

35

100

Change

+13

-26.5

+39.5pts

+13.5

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,806 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020. A higher than usual 6% of electors can’t say who they support.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

Region

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Capital Cities

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

38.5

43.5

95

18

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

52

26.5

125.5

21.5

100

Change

+13.5

-17

+30.5pts

+3.5

Country Areas

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

34.5

53

81.5

12.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

50

30

120

20

100

Change

+15.5

-23

+38.5pts

+7.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

State

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

NSW

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

36

46.5

89.5

17.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

51.5

27

124.5

21.5

100

Change

+15.5

-19.5

+35pts

+4

Victoria

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

35.5

48.5

87

16

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

54

26.5

127.5

19.5

100

Change

+18.5

-22

+40.5pts

+3.5

Queensland

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

40

42.5

97.5

17.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

52.5

26.5

126

21

100

Change

+12.5

-16

+28.5pts

+3.5

WA

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

47

43

104

10

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

51

28

123

21

100

Change

+4

-15

+19pts

+11

SA

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

30

53

77

17

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

45

33

112

22

100

Change

+15

-20

+35pts

+5

Tasmania

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

40

50.5

89.5

9.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

41.5

32.5

109

26

100

Change

+1.5

-18

+19.5pts

+16.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

Gender

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Women

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

32.5

50

82.5

17.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

51.5

24

127.5

24.5

100

Change

+19

-26

+45pts

+7

Men

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

42

43.5

98.5

14.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

51

31.5

119.5

17.5

100

Change

+9

-12

+21pts

+3

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

Age

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

18-34

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

35

46

89

19

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

43.5

31.5

112

25

100

Change

+8.5

-14.5

+23pts

+6

35-49

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

38.5

45.5

93

16

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

45

30

115

25

100

Change

+6.5

-15.5

+22pts

+9

50-64

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

36

51

85

13

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

55.5

28.5

127

16

100

Change

+19.5

-22.5

+42pts

+3

65+

Feb 29/Mar 1 & 7/8, 2020

39

45.5

93.5

15.5

100

April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020

63

19.5

143.5

17.5

100

Change

+24

-26

+50pts

+2

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093