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L-NP (54%) widens lead over ALP (46%) in mid-August as Victoria and NSW grapple with second wave of COVID-19

Interviewing was conducted over the weekends of August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,841 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

In mid August, support for the L-NP Federal Government has increased to 54% cf. ALP 46% on a two-party preferred basis according to the Morgan Poll.

Interviewing was conducted over the weekends of August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,841 Australian electors using a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

L-NP support is up 2.5% points from mid-July as Victoria has been plunged into a second, more restrictive, period of lockdown and NSW has dealt successfully with local outbreaks of COVID-19.

On a State-by-State basis support for the L-NP has increased most strongly in South Australia, up 4.5% points to 57.5% cf ALP 42.5% and New South Wales, up 4% points to 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%.

Support for the L-NP is also up in Queensland, by 2% points to 60% cf. ALP 40% and in Victoria, up 2% points to 48% but still behind the ALP on 52%. In Western Australia there has been no change to the two-party preferred support from a month ago with the L-NP on 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP has increased to 46% (up 2.5% points since mid-July) and has increased their lead over the  ALP on 32.5% (down 1%).

Greens support is unchanged on 11.0% while support for One Nation is up 0.5% to 3%. Support for Independents/Others is down 2% to 7.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence is virtually unchanged at 114 in August

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged in August, down 0.5pts from a month ago to 114. Now 48% (down 1% since mid-July) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 34% (down 0.5%) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Western Australia stands far clear of the Eastern States with Government Confidence at 136.5, up 0.5pts on a month ago.

All other States are clustered around the national average led by NSW on 115, South Australia on 114, Victoria on 109.5, Queensland on 108.5 and Tasmania on 108.

Perhaps surprisingly the biggest declines in Government Confidence from a month ago have been in South Australia (down 16pts) and Queensland (down 9.5pts). Both States have made moves to open their borders but with renewed outbreaks in Victoria and NSW, have since re-strengthened border restrictions and extended their border closures into the future. Neither has been as consistent as Western Australia which has kept its border closed to visitors since late March.

Although Victoria is in the toughest situation of any State, Government Confidence is up 5.5pts from a month ago in mid-August. The announcement of a new harsher lockdown on Sunday August 2, and the peaking of new cases and subsequent decline since August 5 appears to be providing Victorians with confidence that the worst of the second wave is now behind them.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says support for the L-NP Government has increased over the last month with Australia battling a second wave of COVID-19:

“Support for the L-NP Federal Government (54%) is at its equal highest since last year’s Federal Election with support rising strongly in South Australia, NSW, Victoria and Queensland now well ahead of the ALP (46%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“The second wave of COVID-19 which began in Melbourne with a breach of hotel quarantine in late May has led to a Stage 4 lockdown in the city since early August with mandatory mask wearing enforced throughout Victoria for all residents.

“The good news is that since the Stage 4 lockdown began new cases of the virus have dropped significantly and are now at their lowest since early July. In fact, Government Confidence in Victoria increased in August compared to mid-July as the second wave came under control with under 200 new cases of COVID-19 announced today in Victoria.

“Looking forward the extension of the JobKeeper and JobSeeker support packages until March 2021 has provided certainty to businesses dealing with the ongoing impact of the pandemic and the example of NSW over the last seven weeks shows the virus can be successfully managed.

“Since early July NSW has tracked and traced new cases of COVID-19 originating from Victoria rigorously and suppressed the spread of the virus without being forced into a second lockdown.

“The NSW experience shows that if resources are directed into a stringent suppression strategy economies can open up with sensible precautions and avoid damaging lockdowns even with new outbreaks of COVID-19.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,841 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020. A higher than usual 7% of electors (down 1% from a month ago) can’t say who they support.

Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

Electors

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49

34.5

114.5

16.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

48

34

114

18

100

Change

-1

-0.5

-0.5pts

+1.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting Intention

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

L-NP

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

67

20

147

13

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

63.5

20

143.5

16.5

100

Change

-3.5

-

-3.5pts

+3.5

ALP

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

41

39.5

101.5

19.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

42.5

39

103.5

18.5

100

Change

+1.5

-0.5

+2pts

-1

Greens

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

26.5

58

68.5

15.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

26.5

59

67.5

16.5

100

Change

-

+1

-1pts

+1

Independents/Others

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

28.5

56.5

72

15

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

25.5

52

73.5

22.5

100

Change

-3

-4.5

+1.5pts

+7.5

Can’t say*

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

46

26.5

119.5

27.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

41

31

110

28

100

Change

-5

+4.5

-9.5pts

+0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

Region

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Capital Cities

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

48.5

35

113.5

16.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

49

33

116

18

100

Change

+0.5

-2

+2.5pts

+1.5

Country Areas

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49.5

33

116.5

17.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

45.5

36.5

109

18

100

Change

-4

+3.5

-7.5pts

+0.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

State

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

NSW

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49

35.5

113.5

15.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

49.5

34.5

115

16

100

Change

+0.5

-1

+1.5pts

+0.5

Victoria

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

43.5

39.5

104

17

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

46.5

37

109.5

16.5

100

Change

+3

-2.5

+5.5pts

-0.5

Queensland

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

47.5

32.5

115

20

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

44.5

36

108.5

19.5

100

Change

-3

+3.5

-9.5pts

-0.5

WA

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

60.5

24.5

136

15

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

58

21.5

136.5

20.5

100

Change

-2.5

-3

+0.5pts

+5.5

SA

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

57

27

130

16

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

47.5

33.5

114

19

100

Change

-9.5

+6.5

-16pts

+3

Tasmania

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49

38

111

13

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

40

32

108

28

100

Change

-9

-6

-3pts

+15

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

Gender

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Women

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

48.5

32

116.5

19.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

48

32

116

28

100

Change

-0.5

-

-0.5pts

+8.5

Men

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

49.5

36.5

113

14

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

47.5

36.5

111

16

100

Change

-2

-

-2pts

+2

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

Age

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

18-34

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

46

36

110

18

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

41.5

41

100.5

17.5

100

Change

-4.5

+5

-9.5pts

-0.5

35-49

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

45.5

37

108.5

17.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

41.5

37

104.5

21.5

100

Change

-4

-

-4pts

+4

50-64

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

48.5

35

113.5

16.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

50

30.5

119.5

19.5

100

Change

+1.5

-4.5

-+6pts

+3

65+

July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020

57

28.5

128.5

14.5

100

August 8/9 & 15/16, 2020

59.5

27

132.5

13.5

100

Change

+2.5

-1.5

+4pts

-1

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093