Roy Morgan Research
February 16, 2021

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence declines 1.5pts to 109.9 during Victoria’s 5 day lockdown and border closures

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8625
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down by 1.5pts to 109.9 on February 13/14, 2021. Consumer Confidence is now 0.5 points below the 2021 weekly average of 110.4 yet remains 0.8pts higher than the same week a year ago, February 15/16, 2020 (109.1).
The decrease in Consumer Confidence this week has been driven by small falls in confidence in future outlooks for both people’s personal financial situations and Australia overall, with fewer Australians saying they will be ‘better off’ financially a year from now and fewer expecting Australia to have continuous ‘good times’ during the next five years.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 25% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 27% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.


Future financial conditions

  • In addition, 37% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 14% (up 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.


Current economic conditions

  • A decreased proportion of Australians, 19% (down 1ppt), expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while 20% (up 1ppt), expect ‘bad times’.


Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, less than a quarter of Australians, 24% (down 3ppts), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 12% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.


Time to buy a major household item

  • A decreasing plurality of Australians, 42% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 25% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.


ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"The weakness in consumer confidence comes on the back of Victoria’s snap lockdown and associated border closures. This was particularly evident in Melbourne, where confidence declined 5.4%, while in the rest of Victoria it actually increased 7.6%. Admittedly, the data for states/cities is inherently more volatile, given the small sample size. Sentiment in Sydney held up (up 2.8%) even as it weakened in the rest of New South Wales (down 1.5%). While the Victorian lockdown will undoubtedly have a material impact on spending, ANZ observed data shows it will likely rebound quickly when the lockdown eases."


Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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