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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 3.5pts to 109.6 in August

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down by 3.5pts to 109.6 in August.

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down by 3.5pts to 109.6 in August.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 11 points to +13. But hey, shops are shut now anyway.
  • Inflation expectations lifted again to 5.1%, back at its previous high. House price inflation expectations were little changed at 6.3%.
  • The four-week sampling period closed on 22 August, and it’s unlikely more than 15% of the sample was post-lockdown.
Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current financial situations lifted 4 points to +12%.

  • A net 22% expect to be better off this time next year, down 1.

  • A net 13% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, down 11 points. This is the best retail indicator in the survey.

  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 3 points to -5%. The five-year outlook fell 5 points to +7%.

  • House price inflation expectations were little changed at 6.3%. They eased in Auckland and Wellington but rose in the remainder of the North Island to the strongest levels nationwide (7.1%).

  • CPI inflation expectations lifted from 4.9% to 5.1%, extremely high versus a more typical historical reading of around 3½%.

Households’ response to whether it was a good time to buy a major household item eased in August, but this may reflect that it’s likely that a few late-sample responses were taken in a time when buying a major household item was impossible. The data is pretty hypothetical in any case, given most shops are currently shut.

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2