Back To Listing

Support for Labour and Act NZ increases in September as Auckland lockdown extended

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – September 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government increased 3.5% points to 55% in September driven by an increase in support for the Labour Party, up by 6% points to 45.5% as the lockdown in New Zealand’s largest city was extended throughout September. This is the highest level of support for Labour for six months since March 2021. Support for the Greens was down 2.5% points to 9.5%.

The governing parties are now 14% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 41%, up 0.5% points since August. The increase was driven by another rise in support for Act NZ up by 3% points to 16%. This is a new record high in support for Act NZ. In contrast, support for National was down 2% points to 23%, the lowest since March 2021. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 2%.

A small minority of only 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1.5% and support for New Zealand First is down 1% point to 1.5% in September.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 940 electors during September. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed there are 5%, down 2% points, that didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 10pts to 125 in September

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 10pts in September to 125 to be at its highest since May 2021 as the Auckland lockdown was extended throughout September.

In September a majority of 57% (up 4.5% points) of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to under a third, 32% (down 5.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down by 5.1pts to 104.5 in September and is only slightly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 103.7 on September 25/26, 2021 as Australia continues to battle outbreaks of COVID-19 in Sydney and Melbourne.

Women continue to favour Labour-Greens while men favour National-Act NZ

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies with the massive edge in support that the Labour Party receives from women. Nearly two-thirds of women (64.5%) support either Labour (54%) or the Greens (10.5%) compared to only 46% of men supporting either Labour (37.5%) or the Greens (8.5%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 16.5% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among women.

Men are more likely to support the Parliamentary opposition with a majority of 50.5% supporting either National (25.5%), Act NZ (22.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%) compared to under a third, 31.5%, of Women supporting either National (21%), Act NZ (9.5%) or the Maori Party (1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 132.5 for Women compared to 117 for men

The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 59% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 54.5% of men but only 26.5% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 37.5% of men.

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 132.5 for women compared to only 117 for men – a gap of 15.5 points.

Party vote analysis by Gender

Total

Men

Women

%

%

%

Labour

45.5

37.5

54

Greens

9.5

8.5

10.5

Labour/Greens

55

46

64.5

National

23

25.5

21

Act NZ

16

22.5

9.5

Maori Party

2

2.5

1

National/Act NZ/ Maori Party

41

50.5

31.5

Others

4

3.5

4

Total

100

100

100

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

Right Direction

57

54.5

59

Wrong Direction

32

37.5

26.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

125

117

132.5

Can’t say

11

8

14.5

Total

100

100

100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the extended lockdown in Auckland and restrictions in other parts of New Zealand have driven support back up for the governing Labour Party in a repeat of the trend seen in early 2020:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the Labour-led Government has the support of 55% of New Zealand electors in September, up 3.5% points from August. The increase was driven by the jump in support for the Labour Party, up 6% points to 45.5% - the highest support for six months since March. Support for the Greens was down 2.5% points to 9.5%.

“Support for the Parliamentary Opposition was up 0.5% points to 41% in September with increasing support for Act NZ driving the improvement, up by 3% points to 16%. Support for the main Opposition National was down 2% points to 23% and support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 2%.

“The big mover so far this year has been Act NZ which has now more than doubled it’s 2020 election result of 7.6%. Act NZ’s support of 16% is at a record high level and is based firmly upon their support amongst men which is now at 22.5% - up 5% points from August. In contrast only 9.5% of women support Act NZ, an increase of 1% point.

“In the last two months New Zealand’s largest city of Auckland has been in a strict lockdown to supress the highly contagious Delta variant. In addition to the restrictions introduced to deal with the outbreak there has been a rapidly increasing vaccination rate in New Zealand.

“In the last week New Zealand’s first dose vaccination rate (68% of the whole population) has overtaken both the United States (64%) and Germany (67.5%) – two countries with minimal restrictions. It’s true both the US and Germany have higher rates of full vaccination but the rapid uptake of vaccinations in New Zealand will see the country soon overtake these countries for full vaccination as well.

“The high rate of vaccination in New Zealand will lead to a relaxation in restrictions in the next few months with existing border controls to be reconsidered at the end of November.

“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s commitment to minimising the spread of COVID-19 has been endorsed by electors during September while Act NZ’s focus on opening up and learning to live with COVID is also clearly attracting support.

“Act NZ leader David Seymour released a plan entitled ‘Covid 3.0: Life after lockdown’ outlining Act NZ’s plan to re-open the New Zealand economy and allow people to travel in and out of the country before Christmas. The plan would also mean an end to regional or national lockdowns and having a wider focus on overall well-being rather than the concentrating on COVID-19 at the expense of other issues such as mental health.

“The record high level of support for Act NZ suggests the call to re-open the New Zealand economy is bringing in new supporters to the centre-right party.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – September 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – September 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – September 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 929.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

Maori Party**

TOP**

NZ First

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

13.35

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

4.26

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

10.38

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.30

39.10

1.51

2.12

n/a

5.72

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

6.72

44.93

3.65

2.39

n/a

4.07

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

11.06

47.31

1.07

1.43

n/a

6.59

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

10.70

47.04

0.69

1.32

n/a

8.66

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

6.27

44.45

0.50

1.18

2.44

7.20

1.07

October 17, 2020

50.01

7.86

25.58

7.59

1.17

1.51

2.60

3.70

ROY MORGAN POLL

May 2020

56.5

7

26.5

3.5

1.5

1

2.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

9

27

5

1

1.5

1.5

0.5

July 2020

53.5

8

26.5

6.5

0.5

1.5

1.5

2

August 2020

48

11.5

28.5

6

0.5

1

2.5

2

September 2020

47.5

9.5

28.5

7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3

NZ Election 2020

50

7.9

25.6

7.6

1.2

1.5

2.6

3.7

November 2020

44

12.5

25.5

10.5

1

2

1.5

3

December 2020

44

10.5

28

10

2

2

2

1.5

January 2021

47

11.5

25

9

2

1.5

2

2

February 2021

45

13.5

29

7.5

1

1

1.5

1.5

March 2021

45.5

12

23

11

1

2

2.5

3

April 2021

41.5

13.5

29.5

9

2.5

0.5

1

2.5

May 2021

45

11

28.5

9

1.5

1.5

2

1.5

June 2021

38.5

12.5

29.5

11.5

2.5

2

1.5

2

July 2021

39.5

10

29

13

2.5

3

2

1

August 2021

39.5

12

25

13

2.5

2

2.5

3.5

September 2021

45.5

9.5

23

16

2

1.5

1.5

1

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)

NZ Election, October 17, 2020*

57.87

34.33

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020

November 2020

56.5

37

December 2020

54.5

40

2021

January 2021

58.5

36

February 2021

58.5

37.5

March 2021

57.5

35

April 2021

55

41

May 2021

56

39

June 2021

51

43.5

July 2021

49.5

44.5

August 2021

51.5

40.5

September 2021

55

41

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).
For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com


About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2