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ALP (54%) increases lead over the L-NP (46%) as the Federal Government discusses “Net Zero” carbon dioxide emissions

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Oct. 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.
ALP support has increased to 54% (up 1% point since mid-October) cf. L-NP on 46% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

The 1% point swing to the ALP came after the governing Liberal and National parties have spent the last few weeks ‘haggling’ about a change in policy for the Government to support a target of “Net Zero” carbon dioxide emissions for Australia by 2050.

The Liberal Party under the leadership of Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been pushing to be able to make this commitment at the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland whereas the National Party has resisted the reform. The latest news over the weekend is that the National Party has voted narrowly to support this reform although clear divisions remain within the party with at least one National Party Senator vowing to campaign against the change.

Government support weakens in Queensland and NSW over the last two weeks

The arguing between the Liberal and National parties regarding the Government’s policy on carbon dioxide emissions targets has been most intense in Queensland and although still leading, the LNP has lost support. In Queensland the LNP is now on 51.5% (down 3.5% points since mid-October) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the LNP’s lead this represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In NSW former Premier Gladys Berejiklian, who resigned in early October, has been questioned by ICAC – the Independent Commission Against Corruption over the last few weeks over her relationship with former State MP Darryl Maguire. Berejiklian is the third Liberal Premier in NSW to resign amidst allegations of corruption.

The scandal surrounding Berejiklian has certainly hurt the Liberal Party and the ALP has increased its lead in NSW over the last two weeks with ALP support now up 2% points to 55.5% cf. L-NP on 44.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by John Howard at the 1996 Federal Election (ALP 53.6% cf. L-NP 46.4%).

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,778 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of October 16/17 & 23/24, 2021. A higher than usual 8% of electors (up 0.5% points from mid-October) can’t say who they support.

Primary Voting Intention dropped for both major parties in October, but up for the Greens

Primary support for the L-NP was down 1% point to 36.5% in October and is still ahead of the ALP which was also down 1% point to 35%.

In contrast to the two major parties, Greens support increased by 2% points to 13.5% as media attention in October turned to Australia’s response to global warming and climate change.

Support for One Nation was up 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others was down 0.5% points to 11.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in Victoria, WA & Tasmania

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in four States including Victoria, New South Wales, Western Australia and Tasmania. In contrast, the LNP leads only in Queensland and South Australia.

The ALP leads in Victoria on 56.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-October) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 3.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The situation in Western Australia is unchanged with the ALP on 55% (unchanged since mid-October) well ahead of the L-NP on 45% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. This result reprensents a massive swing of 10.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has regained the lead in South Australia with a significant increase in support with the L-NP 51.5% (up 6% points since mid-October) now ahead of the ALP on 48.5% (down 6% pointws) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 2.2% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP continues to enjoy a strong lead in Tasmania with the ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% - a swing of 2% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence increases by 3pts to 98

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased by 3ps to 98 in late October. Now 41%  (up 1% point) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 43%, down 2% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

However, there remains a wide divergence of over 30pts between different States with Government Confidence above 100 in three States (Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales) and below the neutral level of 100 in the three other States (Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia).

Government Confidence is highest in Western Australia at 110.5 in late October while the measure is also in positive territory in both Queensland at 103 and New South Wales at 101. New South Wales finally emerged from a more than 100-day lockdown during mid-October.

In contrast, Government Confidence is below the neutral level of 100 in Victoria at 90 in late October. Victoria’s sixth lockdown ended towards the end of the interviewing period and restrictions are set to ease further over the next few weeks as the vaccination rate continues to increase.

Government Confidence is also below the neutral level of 100 in South Australia at 94 in late October. South Australia is one of only two States yet to outline when it plans to re-open to all of Australia. Government Confidence is lowest of all in tourism-dependent Tasmania at 75. The Tasmanian Premier finally announced last week that the State would re-open to all of Australia on December 15.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the ALP increased its lead as the L-NP Government spent much of the last two weeks engaged in internal arguments about whether Australia should pursue a policy of ‘Net Zero’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2050:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 54% (up 1% point since mid- October) increasing its clear election-winning lead over the L-NP 46% (down 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis.

“However, the major beneficiary over the last two weeks has been the Greens which increased their support by 2% points to 13.5% at the expense of both major parties amidst heavy discussions about Australia’s response to Global Warming and Climate Change.

“This week the Federal Government finally came to an agreement with the National Party signing on to commit to the goal of ‘Net Zero’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Although the L-NP Government has now committed to reducing Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions to ‘Net Zero’ by 2050, they have refused to modify their targets for reducing emissions by 2030.

“Australia signed an agreement in Paris in 2015 to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 26-28% by 2030 and the indications are that Australia will exceed this target and emissions will be reduced by 30-35% on current trajectories. Based on these forecasts the ALP, and also the Greens, are calling for the Government to set larger targets to meet for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

“The ALP has not put a figure on their 2030 emissions reduction target but the Greens are arguing for carbon dioxide emissions to be reduced by 75% by 2030 and for Australia to reach ‘Net Zero’ emissions by 2035 – 15 years earlier than the Federal Government’s new commitment.

“For voters who regard the issue of Global Warming and Climate Change as more important than any other the Greens are the party that is most committed to acting now and acting fast. A special Roy Morgan survey of Australians conducted in September found 24% of Australians regard Environmental problems such as Global Warming and Climate Change as the most important problems facing Australia – second only to COVID-19 related issues (36%).

“On a State-based level the ALP has gained ground over the last two weeks in both Queensland and NSW. The arguments in Queensland surrounding the Federal Government’s policies on reducing carbon dioxide emissions have been heated with the State heavily reliant on resources such as coal. Despite this the LNP holds a slim lead in Queensland: LNP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

“However in NSW the resignation of former Premier Gladys Berejiklian in early October, and her appearance before the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) over the last few weeks, has clearly hurt the Liberal Party in NSW. The ALP has increased its lead in NSW and now leads comfortably in the key State: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%.

“The next Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention due in two weeks will be a big indicator for how well the Government’s new policy for pursing ‘Net Zero’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 has been regarded by the electorate.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:
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Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)


Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Oct. 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2