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ALP (55.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (44.5%) to the largest since the last election as Government splinters on ‘vaccine mandates’

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Nov. 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.
ALP support is now at 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) cf. L-NP on 44.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

This is the largest two-party preferred lead held by the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and exceeds the the ALP’s lead during the height of the ‘2020 Bushfires Crisis’ (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%).

The swing to the ALP came as there have been growing protests around Australia against vaccine mandates being introduced by various State Governments. This week several Government members have threatened to abstain from voting on new legislation until the Federal Government confronts the issues of vaccine mandates.

The result also comes after Prime Minister Scott Morrison returned from the G20 summit in Rome and then the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26). Morrison has been accused of doing the bare minimum at COP26 by committing to a target of “Net Zero” carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 and clearly the trip failed to produce any ‘bounce’ in electoral support.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Malcolm Fraser at the 1975 Federal Election (L-NCP 55.7% cf. ALP 44.3%).

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing over the last two weekends. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,795 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of November 13/14 & 20/21, 2021. A higher than usual 7% of electors (unchanged from early November) can’t say who they support.

Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP and ALP now level on 35.5%

Primary support for the L-NP fell 1% point to 35.5% in late November and is now level with the ALP which increased 0.5% points to 35.5% and support for the Greens was up 0.5% points to 12%.

Support for One Nation was up by 0.5% points to 3.5% while support for Independents/Others was down by the same amount, down by 0.5% points to 13.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all six States – biggest lead in Victoria

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States – even Queensland. In a concerning sign for the Government the ALP’s biggest leads are in Victoria and NSW.

The ALP enjoys a large lead in Victoria on 58% (up 3% points since early November) compared to the L-NP on 42% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 4.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP’s improvement in Victoria comes after large protests against the Andrews Government on a range of issues including new legislation on ‘extraordinary’ powers for the Premier to declare a pandemic, the Andrews’ Government enforcement of vaccine mandates and tough restrictions on Victorians who are choosing to remain unvaccinated against COVID-19.

The ALP has stretched its lead in NSW in line with the national trend over the last two weeks. The ALP is now on 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) compared to the L-NP on 44.5% (up 2% points). This result represents a swing of 7.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

There has been a significant swing to the ALP in Queensland with the party now ahead on a two-party preferred basis on 51.5% (up 4.5% points since early November) compared to the LNP on 48.5% (down 4.5% points). This result represents a swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The situation in Western Australia is unchanged on early November with the ALP on 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a massive swing of 9.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia the ALP is on 55.5% (down 2% points since early November) well ahead of the L-NP on 44.5% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 4.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads in Tasmania with the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% - however, this represents a swing of 3% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down by 2pts to 93.5 following international trip

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 2ps to 93.5 in late November. Now 39.5%  (down 0.5% points) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 46%, up 1.5% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

However, there remains a wide divergence of over 35pts between different States with Government Confidence above 100 only in Western Australia at an impressive 113.5 while being the neutral level of 100 in all five other States.

Despite the easing of restrictions in all three States Government Confidence is below 100 and around the national average in New South Wales (92), Victoria (92) and Queensland (93.5).

In contrast, Government Confidence is well below the neutral level of 100 in the two smaller States which continue to have more restrictions on travel than the largest States with Government Confidence at only 84.5 in South Australia and just 77.5 in Tasmania. Tasmanian borders are set to re-open in just under three weeks on Wednesday December 15, 2021.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the ALP’s lead over the L-NP has strengthened in the last fortnight as restrictions continue to be eased and Australia slowly enters a period of ‘COVID-normal’ although domestic and international travel is still highly restricted:

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 55.5% (up 2% points since early November) increasing its lead over the L-NP 44.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis to a record margin during this term of Parliament.

“This is the largest margin the ALP has enjoyed over the Government during this term of Parliament and is larger than the ALP’s lead during last year’s ‘Bushfire Crisis’ when the ALP lead stretched out to 10% points in early February 2020: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the weeks ahead turned this around and gave the L-NP a significant boost.

“The ALP’s lead is broad-based across all six States and importantly the ALP is strongest in the two largest States of New South Wales and Victoria which comprise 86 seats in the 151 seat Parliament. The ALP’s largest leads is in Victoria: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% and also has a clear advantage in New South Wales: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%.

“The L-NP is also behind with both genders. Women strongly support the ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43% on a two-party preferred basis while the ALP’s lead amongst men is now at its largest since Scott Morrison became Prime Minister. ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%.

“The take-out from these results is that Prime Minister Morrison’s overseas trip to the G20 Summit in Rome and the United Nations COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow in early November has ‘fallen flat’ and not provided any ‘boost’ at all for the L-NP Government.

“Despite committing to reduce Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions to ‘Net Zero’ by 2050 for the first time support for the L-NP is now lower than at any other time since the 2019 Federal Election.

“The Federal Parliament is due to rise for the Summer break next week and it’s possible there will be no more Parliamentary sitting weeks before next year’s Federal Election. Given the latest results the Morrison Government will be hoping for a significant reset in public expectations over the Summer break before campaigning begins in earnest early in 2022.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Nov. 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.

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