ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 1.4pts to 96.6 in November – lowest for over a year
New Zealand Consumer confidence was down by 1.4pts to 96.6 in November, perceptions of current conditions rose but expectations fell sharply.
New Zealand Consumer confidence was down by 1.4pts to 96.6 in November, perceptions of current conditions rose but expectations fell sharply.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item lifted 1 point and remains subdued at -6.
- Inflation expectations eased half a percent to 5.7%. House price inflation expectations fell back under 6%.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 7 points to 4%.
- A net 15% expect to be better off this time next year, down another 5.
- A net 6% think it is a bad time to buy a major household item, still very subdued. This is the best retail indicator in the survey.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell another 3 points to -28%. The five-year outlook fell 4 points to -2%. This is the first time that’s ever been negative, in data that goes back to 2004.
- House price inflation expectations fell 0.8%pts to 5.9%. They fell most in Wellington (5.0% vs. 8.3% last month).
- CPI inflation expectations eased from 6.2% to 5.7%, still the second-highest read on record. Households have been more clued up than anyone when it comes to inflation in the past 18 months.
Households’ response to whether it was a good time to buy a major household remains subdued everywhere outside the South Island outside of Canterbury. Auckland and Wellington are the most pessimistic. Those 50+ are the most comfortable spending, which isn’t unusual.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
