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Treasurer Josh Frydenberg emerges as preferred Liberal Leader ahead of Scott Morrison & Peter Dutton

This special telephone Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on February 14-15, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,080 electors.
Now 38.5% of Australians prefer Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to lead the L-NP Government, clearly ahead of current Prime Minister Scott Morrison (31%) and Defence Minister Peter Dutton (12.5%) while 2% named someone else and 16% had no preference.

Importantly for Prime Minister Morrison, he is still preferred by L-NP supporters: Morrison (40%) cf. Frydenberg (32.5%), according to a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 1,080 Australian electors conducted yesterday and Monday, February 14-15, 2022.

An analysis by gender shows Frydenberg leads Morrison amongst men by 3% points (Frydenberg: 36% cf. Morrison: 33.5%), and by 12% points amongst women (Frydenberg 41% cf. Morrison 29%).

An analysis by age shows Frydenberg with the advantage amongst younger age groups while Morrison leads only amongst those aged 65+ years old:

  • 18-34 year olds: Frydenberg 46.5% cf. Morrison 22%;
  • 35-49 year olds: Frydenberg 36.5% cf. Morrison 30%;
  • 50-64 year olds: Frydenberg 37% cf. Morrison 29.5%;
  • 65+ year olds: Morrison 46% cf. Frydenberg 33%.
On a State-by-State basis Frydenberg leads in five States, NSW, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania while Morrison leads only in Queensland.

  • NSW: Frydenberg 38% cf. Morrison 35.5%;
  • Victoria: Frydenberg 43.5% cf. Morrison 26%;
  • Queensland: Morrison 37.5% cf. Frydenberg 32%;
  • WA: Frydenberg 38.5% cf. Morrison 25.5%;
  • SA: Frydenberg 37% cf. Morrison 30.5%;
  • Tasmania: Frydenberg 43.5% cf. Morrison 33%.
A look at who supporters of different parties prefer as Leader shows Prime Minister Morrison retains the support of L-NP voters while Frydenberg is preferred by ALP supporters, Greens supporters and supporters of Independents/Others.

  • L-NP supporters: Morrison 47% cf. Frydenberg 38.5%;
  • ALP supporters: Frydenberg 50% cf. Morrison 34%;
  • Greens supporters: Frydenberg 65% cf. Morrison 27.5%;
  • Independents/ Others supporters: Frydenberg 38.5% cf. Morrison 33.5%.
Electors were then asked: “And what would you say your biggest concerns are about Scott Morrison?”

There were several key themes that emerged including Morrison’s poor leadership including lack of empathy, compassion or honesty, his religiosity – including using his religion in a fake way, no real commitment to addressing climate change and global warming and his poor attitude and understanding and handling of women’s issues.

More details on these key themes are available to subscribers.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has emerged as the favoured leader of the Liberal Party according to Australians with 38.5% preferring the Deputy Liberal Leader compared to 31% that prefer his boss, Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and 12.5% that prefer Defence Minister Peter Dutton.

“Frydenberg is preferred across nearly all key demographic groups including by both genders, by all age groups under the age of 65, in five out of six states and by supporters of the ALP, Greens, Independents and Others.

“However, there is still a solid base of support for Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Most importantly for Morrison he is clearly favoured by L-NP supporters over Frydenberg (47% cf. 38.5%). Morrison is also preferred by people in the key State of Queensland (37.5% cf. 32%) and with people aged 65+ years old (46% cf. 33%).

“Defence Minister Peter Dutton trails well behind both Morrison and Frydenberg. The highest support for Dutton comes from supporters of Independents/ Other (minor) Parties from which he attracts 22% support, but this is still well behind both Frydenberg (31%) and Morrison (27%).”

This special telephone Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on February 14-15, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,080 electors.

Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention

Feb 14-15,
2022

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Other#

Can’t say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

38.5

32.5

40.5

51

31

53.5

Morrison

31

40

27.5

21.5

27

24

Dutton

12.5

12.5

13

6

22

13

Someone else

2

2.5

1.5

3

1

1

None/ Can’t say

16

12.5

17.5

18.5

19

8.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Gender & Age

Gender

Age

Feb 14-15,
2022

Men

Women

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

38.5

36

41

46.5

36.5

37

33

Morrison

31

33.5

29

22

30

29.5

46

Dutton

12.5

16.5

9

9.5

15.5

14

12

Someone else

2

1.5

2

3

1

1.5

1

None/ Can’t say

16

12.5

19

19

17

18

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Analysis by State & Region

Region

State

Feb 14-15,
2022

Capital
Cities

Country Areas

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

38.5

41

35

38

43.5

32

38.5

37

43.5

Morrison

31

31

31.5

35.5

26

37.5

25.5

30.5

33

Dutton

12.5

11

15

12

14.5

14

9

11

15.5

Someone else

2

1

2.5

0.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

2.5

None/ Can’t say

16

16

16

14

14

15

26

21

5.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.

Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Feb 14-15,
2022

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Other#

Can’t say#

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

47

38.5

50

65

38.5

59

Morrison

38

47

34

27.5

33.5

26.5

Dutton

15

14.5

16

7.5

28

14.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

Analysis by Gender & Age (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Gender

Age

Feb 14-15,
2022

Men

Women

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

47

42

52

59.5

44.5

46

36.5

Morrison

38

39

37

28.5

37

36.5

50.5

Dutton

15

19

11

12

18.5

17.5

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Analysis by State & Region (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Region

State

Feb 14-15,
2022

Capital
Cities

Country Areas

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Frydenberg

47

49

43

44.5

51.5

38.5

52.5

47

47.5

Morrison

38

37.5

39

41

31.5

45

35.5

39

35.5

Dutton

15

13.5

18

14.5

17

16.5

12

14

17

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com