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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 4.3pts to 95.8 as Russian invasion of Ukraine causes spike in fuel prices

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,499 online and telephone interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 during the week of March 7-13, 2022.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 4.3pts to 95.8 during the second week of March. Consumer Confidence is a significant 15.1pts below the same week a year ago, March 13/14, 2021 (110.9) and is now clearly below the 2022 weekly average of 100.6.

Consumer Confidence dropped to its lowest since October 3/4, 2020 (95.7) this week as the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to sanctions on Russian energy exports and led to steep increases in the prices of petroleum products. The price of petrol in Australia has hit record highs above $2 per litre for the first time.

Consumer Confidence is now below the neutral level of 100 in all States and dropped in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia but was up slightly in Western Australia. Driving the weekly drop were declines in sentiment in regards to personal financial situations and also the performance of the economy over the next year and next five years.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 35% (up 4ppts), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, 36% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to just 24% (up 4ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 12% (down 1ppt), of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 29% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just 15% (down 2ppts), of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 21% (up 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions have slightly deteriorated with 35% (unchanged) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 36% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Household inflation expectations jumped to 5.6% last week, its highest level since November 2012. Rapid gains in petrol prices are likely the key reason for the lift. Households are certainly noticing the effect of higher prices on their finances, with overall confidence dropping 4.3% and all sub-indices lower. Confidence is well below neutral, at its lowest level since October 2020 and is below neutral in all states. The surge in inflation expectations heightens the risk of a shift in the ‘psychology’ of inflation that requires more aggressive action from the RBA. Though, if the recent fall in oil prices is sustained, we would expect inflation expectations to ease."



Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2