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Indonesian Consumer Confidence increases to 159.5 in October

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,279 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in October throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

In October, Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased to 159.5, up 1.5pts from the previous month. However Consumer Confidence is now 3.5pts lower than it was a year ago (163.0).

Analysis of Consumer Confidence by employment and occupation shows declines across most categories over the past year, with the steepest drop among those not in paid employment, down 6.1pts to 154.

Indonesians in full-time employment have Consumer Confidence of 163.1, which is higher than those in part-time employment (on 157.5), although the gap has narrowed over the past year. The vast majority of Indonesians with work are employed full-time (85%), in contrast with Australia, where the split is full-time (68%) and part-time (32%).

Professionals/Managers (167.4) and White Collar employees (167.2) who comprise just over half (55%) of employed Indonesians continue to have significantly higher Consumer Confidence than Indonesians in Skilled/Unskilled employment (158.8) – although all three categories have fallen from a year ago.

“Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up marginally from a month ago to 159.5, after widespread protests over controversial proposed new laws negatively impacted confidence in September,” said Ira Soekirman, Director of Roy Morgan Indonesia.

“However compared to a year ago Consumer Confidence has dropped by 3.5pts – the largest annual decline since March 2016 (also -3.5pts). The steepest annual fall in the employment categories was for White Collar employees (-6.1pts) although they still have an elevated level of Consumer Confidence at 167.2.

“Despite the decline, Consumer Confidence in Indonesia remains at a highly elevated level, more than 20pts above the long-term average (137.5), more than 40pts higher than in New Zealand (118.4) and more than 50pts higher than in southern neighbour Australia (106.8),” said Ms. Soekirman.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Employment & Occupation: Oct. 2018 cf. Oct.
2019

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Employment & Occupation - October 2019

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Oct. 2018 (n=1,283) & Oct. 2019 (n=1,279).


Long-term Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence: 2009-2019

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence - October 2019 - 159.5

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ October 2019 (n=1,279).


Improvement in family financial situations drives a small Consumer Confidence rise in October

Analysis of the latest consumer confidence compared to a month ago shows the monthly increase is driven by views on personal family financial situations.

Now 43% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 9% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

An increasing majority of 71% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and only 5% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In October, 90% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and just 10% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

Looking at the longer-term, 92% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 7% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.

A slightly increased majority of 65% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 32% (down 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Comparing Indonesian Consumer Confidence with the longer-term, the current rating is a significant 22pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 137.5.

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,279 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in October throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia November 23/24, 2019 – 106.8) and New Zealand (October 2019 – 118.4); long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.


For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0