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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence ends 2020 on a high - up 5.1pts to 112.0 in December

Consumer confidence was up 5.1pts to 112.0 in December, with the current and future conditions indexes lifting by similar amounts. Consumer confidence is edging closer to its historical average of around 120.

Consumer confidence was up 5.1pts to 112.0 in December, with the current and future conditions indexes lifting by similar amounts. Consumer confidence is edging closer to its historical average of around 120.

  • In a good sign for the retail sector, the proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item lifted 7 points.
  • Inflation expectations eased somewhat, but remain elevated.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted 5 points in December. It remains well short of 2017-19 levels, unlike business sentiment.

Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current financial situations rose 3 pts to +4.

  • A net 25% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 2.

  • A net 18% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, up 7. This data still suggests subdued retail spending on the face of it, but may be influenced by freight disruptions and associated shortages and delays.

  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 12 points to -6%. The five-year outlook rose 3 points to +18%.

  • House price inflation expectations lifted another 0.3%pts to 6.7%. They are strongest in the South Island excluding Christchurch (8.3%) after a sharp 2.5%pt monthly lift.

  • CPI inflation expectations eased 0.4%pts to 4.3%. The RBNZ discounts household inflation expectations as they are volatile and average well above actual outcomes. But there is information in them nonetheless, and the last two months have been very high in a historical comparison.

Households expect the housing boom to continue, though this indicator does tend to lag the market rather than predict it. Still, it’s worth noting that a 6.7% house price inflation expectation is the strongest since the question was first asked in late 2010.

Households remain wary about whether it is a good time to buy a major household item. The latter has historically been the best retail spending indicator in the survey, but undershot last quarter. There are a few factors that could have contributed:

  • catch-up spending (which should soon peter out), 
  • a reallocation of the money that would have been spent on international holidays (which will subside as travel bubbles are established next year), and/or 
  • the shortages and delays inherent in ordering a wide range of durable goods at present due to shipping disruptions.
The timing implications are different but these factors do all point to questionable sustainability of the current spending boom.

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2