This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on Tuesday March 29, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,035 Australians aged 18+.
A clear majority of Australians 69% (up 3% points since March 2017) say the Roy Morgan February unemployment estimate (8.5%) is ‘closer to reality’ while only 31% (down 3% points) believe the far lower official ABS February unemployment number (4.0%). This special SMS Roy Morgan Poll was conducted on Tuesday March 29, 2022.
Analysis by Gender & Age
Analysis by gender shows women 71% (up 1% point) are slightly more likely than men 67% (up 7% points) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’. In contrast 33% (down 7% points) of men and 29% (down 1% point) of women say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’.
Analysis by age groups shows people of all ages are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures - 71% of 18-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’, along with 76% of 25-34yr olds, 68% of 35-49yr olds, 75% of 50-64yr olds and 57% of 65+yr olds.
Analysis by Voting Intention
Analysis by voting intention shows around two-thirds of ALP supporters (69%) and L-NP supporters (63%) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 31% of ALP supporters and 37% of L-NP supporters that say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’.
Over three-quarters of Greens supporters (76%) and supporters of Independents/ Other Parties (76%) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to only 24% of either that say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ – a difference of over 3:1.
Analysis by State
Analysis by State shows large majorities of people in Victoria (73%), NSW (72%), Queensland (70%), Tasmania (77%) and South Australia (66%) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’.
In contrast, perceptions are more mixed in Western Australia with 56% of people saying the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 44% that say the ABS unemployment estimate is.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (8.5% in February 2022) is ‘closer to reality’ than the latest ABS unemployment estimate (4.0%) – the fifth straight time Australians have trusted Roy Morgan’s estimate more than the ABS:
“For the fifth straight survey, and every time we have measured the views of Australians on this issue, a clear majority of 69% of Australians (up 3% points from March 2017) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 8.5% in February is ‘closer to reality’ than the ABS unemployment estimate of 4.0%.
“There is widespread agreement that Roy Morgan’s unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ with large majorities of men and women, all age groups and supporters of the ALP, L-NP, Greens and Independents/Other Parties all favouring the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate over the ABS.
“There is a significant difference between the two unemployment estimates and the reliance on the ABS unemployment estimate does mean many media commentators and policy-makers have a lack of understanding of why wage growth in Australia remains so low – wage growth in the year to December 2021 was at an annual rate of only 2.3%.
“The main reason wage growth across the economy remains low is because real unemployment and under-employment is far higher than the monthly ABS unemployment estimates. The latest Roy Morgan unemployment (8.5% of the workforce, 1.23 million) and under-employment (7.8% of the workforce, 1.13 million) estimates show over 2.35 million Australians (16.3% of the workforce) remain looking for work or working part-time and looking for more hours – the under-employed.
“This large cohort of unemployed and under-employed Australians represents nearly 1-in-6 people in the workforce and is over four times higher than the oft-cited ABS unemployment estimate of 4.0% representing only 563,000 workers.
“To be fair, the ABS does (since October 2018) now publish a monthly under-employment estimate which covers 925,000 odd workers in February 2022 for a total of 1.49 million workers unemployed or under-employed, but this figure is rarely mentioned in media and labour force commentary – and is still nearly 900,000 below the comparable Roy Morgan estimate.
“The policies of the Federal Government and the RBA rely heavily on accurate measures of the Australian labour force – and the true levels of unemployment and under-employment. Until there is widespread under-standing that the ABS provides an artificially low estimate of Australian unemployment these key policy-making institutions will continue to misunderstand the real dynamics of the Australian labour market – and continue to over-estimate the level of future wage growth in the economy.”
This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on Tuesday March 29, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,035 Australians aged 18+.
Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in February was 4.0%. The Roy Morgan estimate for February was 8.5%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?”
ABS v Roy Morgan Unemployment figures
Australians were asked: “The ABS Unemployment rate in February was 4.0%. The Roy Morgan estimate for February was 8.5%. Which do you believe is closer to reality?”
|
Australians 18+
|
|
June
2013
|
June
2014
|
April
2015
|
March
2017
|
March 29,
2022
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
Roy Morgan
|
73
|
63
|
67
|
66
|
69
|
ABS
|
27
|
37
|
33
|
34
|
31
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
*The ‘Can’t say’ figures on previous interviewing rounds, which have been ‘re-percentaged’ out of this table for purposes of comparison, were June 2013 (21%), June 2014 (13%), April 2015 (11%) and March 2017 (11%).
|
Electors
|
Political Party Support
|
|
March 29,
2022
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
Ind/
Other#
|
Can’t say
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
Roy Morgan
|
68
|
63
|
69
|
76
|
76
|
70
|
ABS
|
32
|
37
|
31
|
24
|
24
|
30
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.
|
Australians 18+
|
Gender
|
Age
|
|
|
Men
|
Women
|
18-24#
|
25-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
Roy Morgan
|
69
|
67
|
71
|
71
|
76
|
68
|
75
|
57
|
ABS
|
31
|
33
|
29
|
29
|
24
|
32
|
25
|
43
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.
|
Australians 18+
|
Regions
|
State
|
|
March 29,
2022
|
Capital
Cities
|
Country
Regions
|
NSW
|
VIC
|
QLD
|
WA
|
SA
|
TAS#
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
Roy Morgan
|
69
|
69
|
69
|
72
|
73
|
70
|
56
|
66
|
77
|
ABS
|
31
|
31
|
31
|
28
|
27
|
30
|
44
|
34
|
23
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
#Figures for some these demographics must be treated with caution as there are under 50 interviews.
*In June 2013 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 9.7% and the ABS unemployment figure was 5.7%. In June 2014 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 10.6% and the ABS unemployment figure was 6.0%. In April 2015 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 10.8% and the ABS unemployment figure was 6.1%. In March 2017 the Roy Morgan unemployment figure was 9.4% and the ABS unemployment figure was 5.7% (Jan. 2017) and then 5.9% (Feb. 2017).