Roy Morgan Research
May 23, 2023

Roy Morgan Update May 23, 2023 – Victorian Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Federal Voting Intention

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9354
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In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Victorian Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Federal Voting Intention

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

This week we asked Victorian electors what they think of the new Opposition Leader, John Pesutto. Would he make a ‘Better Premier’ than Daniel Andrews and how Andrews himself is faring in the mind of the electorate.

I can reveal the results are surprising.

Turning to national politics its one year since the election of the Albanese Government.

It’s been smooth sailing for most of that period for the Government with a consistent lead in the Roy Morgan Poll despite some ups and downs along the way.

Although US President Joe Biden cancelled his trip to Australia – Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was in Japan for the G7 meeting over the weekend meeting with key allies and partners including President Biden.

But, the trip to the G7 didn’t translate into an increase in support for the Federal Government.

Support for the Albanese Government was down 1.5% points to 55.5% on a two-party preferred basis while support for the Coalition increased 1.5% points to 44.5%.

This is still up about 3.5% points on last year’s Federal Election result which the ALP won with 52.1% of the vote.

Government Confidence this week was virtually unchanged at 93.5 – still just below the neutral level of 100.

Now 45.5% of Australians say the country is ‘Heading in the Wrong Direction’ and 39% say ‘the Right Direction’.

There was an improvement for the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating this week, up 1.4 points to 77.3, off last week’s three year low.

Consumer Confidence has now spent 12 weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest period at recession levels since the index begun.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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