Roy Morgan Research
June 06, 2023

Roy Morgan Update June 6, 2023: Consumer Confidence, Unemployment & Mortgage Stress

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9374
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In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Unemployment & Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update which includes the latest figures on ‘Mortgage Stress’ and Australia’s unemployment and under-employment.

Support continues to remain strong for the Government despite other indicators moving in a negative direction.

Support for the Albanese Government was unchanged for a third straight week at 55.5% on a two-party preferred basis while support for the Coalition was unchanged at 44.5%.

This is still about 3.5% higher than last year’s Federal Election result which the ALP won with 52.1% of the vote.

However, Government Confidence dropped 4.5 points to 84 this week – the lowest its been since the election of the Albanese Government just over a year ago.

A majority of 51% of Australians (up 2.5% points) say the country is ‘Heading in the Wrong Direction’ and only 35% (down 2% points) say it’s ‘Heading in the Right Direction’.

Consumer Confidence was down slightly this week, by 0.4 points to 75.8 – before the Reserve Bank meets today to set interest rates.

Consumer Confidence has now spent 14 weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest period at recession levels since the index began.

Before today’s RBA meeting Consumer Confidence was clearly lowest for people Paying Off Their Home at only 71.2.

However, the biggest drop this week was for Home Owners, their Consumer Confidence is down 4.6 points to 75.9. Renters are slightly more confident at 80.5.

Over the weekend – ahead of today’s crucial Reserve Bank meeting – the key weekly indicator of Inflation Expectations increased to its highest since mid-April.

Australians now expect annual inflation to be 5.5% over each of the next two years – that’s up 0.2% this week.

Inflation Expectations are now slightly higher than the 5.4% average so far this year – although this is still well below the high of 6.8% reached in early November last year.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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