Roy Morgan Update October 24, 2023: Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

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In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

And a week after the ‘Voice was defeated the latest Roy Morgan Poll shows ALP support has dropped significantly – down 4.5% to 49.5%, behind the Coalition on 50.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

This is the first time since the Albanese Government won last year’s Federal Election that the Coalition has been in front.

If a Federal Election were held now the Coalition would win.

This week Government Confidence was down by 4.5 points to 78 – well below the neutral level of 100.

Most Australians – or 53.5% of them – say the country is going in the wrong direction and only 31.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

Primary voting intention now shows the Coalition on 36%, up 2% from a week ago and clearly ahead of the ALP on only 32% - down 3% from a week ago.

The Greens are unchanged on 14%, support for Independents is up 1.5% to 8.5% and support for One Nation is down 0.5% to 4.5%. A further 5% of electors support Other Parties.

Looking at two-party preferred results by State shows some interesting results with the ALP ahead in Victoria and Western Australia but now behind in the three other mainland States.

In Victoria the ALP on 54.5% leads the Coalition on 45.5%.

In Western Australia the ALP on 53% leads the Coalition on 47%.

In contrast, the Coalition is well ahead in Queensland on 60.5% compared to the ALP on only 39.5%.

Remember, Queensland is the Coalition’s stronghold and the LNP holds 21 seats in Queensland compared to only 5 for the ALP.

The Coalition is also in front in South Australia on 53.5% leading the ALP on 46.5%.

The result is tightest in New South Wales with the Coalition on 51.5% just ahead of the ALP on 48.5%.

For the first time in a long-time women favour the L-NP. In fact there is little to split the Genders this week with both men and women narrowly favouring the Coalition in line with the overall result: Coalition 50.5% compared to ALP on 49.5%.

A look at the age splits shows clear differences by age.

Younger people aged 18-34 heavily favour the ALP on 59.5% compared to the Coalition on 40.5%.

Australians aged 35-49 narrowly favour the ALP on 53.5% compared to the Coalition on 46.5% - however this flips for the next age group.

Those aged 50-64 are almost evenly split but give the Coalition the edge on 50.5% ahead of the ALP on 49.5%.

Older Australians aged 65+ are heavily in favour of the Coalition with the party on 63.5% compared to the ALP on only 36.5%.

The age of an elector is again one of the key indicators as to how they are likely to vote.

Despite the fall in support for the Government, Consumer Confidence increased by 1.8 points to 78.2 this week mostly driven by increased optimism about the economy.

The index is once again stuck below 80 but the upward move provides hope that the index can sustainably advance above that mark in the next few weeks.

However – that will likely depend on what the RBA does in early November which is closely related to the next indicator – Inflation.

In a concerning move, Inflation Expectations were up 0.4% points to 5.7% this week – now at their highest level since early July over three months ago.

Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 5.7% over the next two years.

Since hitting a low of 4.9% in mid-September, Inflation Expectations have increased by a large 0.8% points over the last month.